We're Doing the Irish Jig!
A meh Thursday, winning one and losing one. 😒 But we believe that today’s newsletter, along with the plays we already have in the hole for this weekend and the bonus plays we’ll be releasing all weekend, have us set for a big weekend of cashing tickets. 💵 We covered all the bases in the final newsletter of the week, hitting on the MLB Division Series action that starts Saturday and all the football, both NFL and college. It’s a bit of a jumbo-sized issue, so let’s get to it and tell you exactly how we’re banging the books today! 🍀
Here’s what’s on tap:
We found big value in an underdog in Saturday’s MLB Division Series action⚾
We add a pair of https://www.rithmm.com/ model plays to our NFL card for Week 5 👍
A surprise under in college football 🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides & Totals: The value lies with the Twins in their Division Series opener on Saturday
The MLB postseason continues with a slate of four games to start Division Series play on Saturday, and we have isolated two spots we like. Division Series play can always be very tricky to handicap because of the rest versus rust factor and some big prices in the early games. As a result, we will make our Game 1 plays half-unit plays to limit our downside exposure.
Half-Unit Play: Twins ML+137 vs. Astros: We don’t quite have this one as a tossup, but we certainly give the Twins a better chance of taking this series opener than most, including the oddsmakers. We think there is value in getting nearly 40 cents with the Twins. While the Astros lineup has the names and the reputation (rightly so), the Twins batting order can also mash and match Houston run for run. Here’s an interesting tidbit about the Astros to help make our case: despite Minute Maid Park being an average hitter's park, according to Baseball Savant, Houston only scored 4.51 runs per game at home this season compared to 5.70 on the road. In turn, Minnesota plated 4.77 runs per game on the road in 2023. Looking at the starting pitching matchup, conventional wisdom would give the Astros a huge edge, but a look into the numbers says that’s not the case. Justin Verlander’s 2.73 ERA in his last five starts is excellent, but his underlying advanced analytics (yawn) 🥱are pedestrian, most notably a 4.07 SIERA. Twins starter Joe Ryan has a bloated 6.20 ERA in his last five outings, but the metrics point to Ryan pitching in some bad luck, and his SIERA is almost a half run better than Verlander’s, leading us to believe this is a much more even pitching matchup than it appears on paper. Finally, with the Minnesota bullpen pitching so well the last month, the Astros won’t enjoy their usual huge late-game edge thanks to their vaunted reliever corps. We see a lot of value in the Twins in this spot and are rolling with them on the moneyline in the series opener.
Half-Unit Play: Orioles vs. Rangers u8 (-107): A variety of factors go into this play, but we feel confident that when combined, they should result in a low-scoring game. Factor one is the general decrease in scoring from the regular season to the postseason. Runs are typically reduced by about 15%, so with the average regular season game totaling a shade over nine runs, the normal playoff game should average about 7.8 runs. The next factor in this game is the ballpark. Since they moved the fences back and raised them five feet in left field in 2022, Camden Yards has gone from one of MLB’s best hitters parks to one of the pitcher-friendliest stadiums in baseball. Let’s not forget the pitchers. Texas starter Dane Dunning finished the regular season pitching pretty well, but it’s Baltimore Kyle Bradish we want to focus on. He was tremendous down the stretch, going 2-1 with a 1.86 ERA in his last five starts. Finally, outside of the Rangers offensive explosion against the Rays to close out their wild-card series on Wednesday, both Texas and Baltimore’s offenses finished the regular season struggling from the plate. Put it all together, and you have a recipe for a low-scoring game that should slide under the total.
NFL Week 5: Look for the Bills to keep up their winning ways Sunday
Here are two more plays for your Week 5 NFL Sunday. These picks are both courtesy of our NFL betting model, made possible by https://www.rithmm.com/. The rest of our NFL Sunday plays will be released on Sunday morning on Twitter/X @give_me_wins, so hit that follow button on our profile and don’t miss out.
Bills -5.5 (-110) vs. Jaguars: The Jaguars handled business in the first half of their London trip, capitalizing on an ideal matchup against the Falcons. Jacksonville excels at limiting the run game, which is the focus of the Atlanta offense. The Jags forced three turnovers, held Atlanta to 287 total yards, and cruised to a win in a game where they looked anything but great. On the other hand, the Bills dominated the final three-quarters of a very impressive win over the Dolphins. Josh Allen was exceptional for Buffalo, slinging the ball all over the field while the Bills' defense shined too, holding both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill under 60 yards receiving and keeping them out of the end zone. If the Bills defense can hold down the duo of Hill and Waddle, they should have little trouble with Jacksonville’s nondescript group of pass-catching targets. Buffalo’s vaunted passing attack should have their way with a shaky Jaguars pass defense. Our only concern is whether this is a trap game for Buffalo. Will they be flat after their dominant effort against Miami and mail it in after the long trip overseas? We don’t believe so and like the Bills to prevail by two scores.
Colts vs. Titans u43.5 (-110): Our https://www.rithmm.com/ NFL betting model has these two teams combining to score just 40 points Sunday, making the win probability on this wager a shade above 60%. With the Titans likely to build their game plan around pounding the rock with Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears, possessions and scoring opportunities will be at a premium for both clubs. On the season, Tennessee is 30th in plays per game, 20th in yards per play, and only scores 18 points per contest. The Colts are 23rd in the NFL in yards per play and in the middle of the pack in points scored. Both clubs' slow pace and lack of explosive plays should allow this one to fall comfortably under the total.
CFB Week 6: The Fighting Irish should clip the Cardinals’ wings
We continue to build our college football card for Saturday. We’re 2-0 thus far on the week in CFB and like these two plays to add to our win total.
Notre Dame -5.5 (-113) vs. Louisville: We’re big believers in Louisville this season and believe they will win nine games and dominate the lesser lights of the ACC the rest of the season. Where the Cardinals will fall short is against the elite teams in college football, and Notre Dame is one of those teams. Fighting Irish quarterback, Sam Hartman gets back a pair of crucial weapons at receiver in Jaden Greathouse and Jayden Thomas, which should allow him and the Notre Dame passing game to have their way against the Cardinals defense. Don’t read too much into Louisville’s lackluster showing against NC State last week; chalk that up to looking ahead to this primetime game on national TV against the Irish. The Cardinals will bring their A-game on Saturday, and Notre Dame will have to match their intensity, which we think they will once the game gets rolling. At that point, the talent difference will show through allowing the Fighting Irish to eventually pull away by two scores and cover the number. This one won’t be easy for the Irish but count on them to wear down Louisville.
USC vs. Arizona u72.5 (-110): We went with the under in the Wildcats' matchup against Washington and cashed without much trouble. While Washington's defense had its share of uncertainties, we weren't convinced that Arizona's offense would be the one to challenge them. This same scenario applies here, with USC's defense facing similar questions. However, based on what we’ve seen, we seriously doubt that the Wildcats offense will test the Trojans. Last week, Arizona managed just 4.9 yards per play against the Huskies. Starting QB Jayden de Laura, who missed the game versus Washington due to an ankle injury, did not practice on Monday and was limited on Wednesday, making it likely that Noah Fifita will start again. The under has hit in all five of Arizona's games this season, and we anticipate it making it six.
That’s a wrap, gang—another fun and eventful week at GIVE ME WINS. We figured we’d go big or go home with a super-sized issue to finish out the week. We want to remind you once again to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for all the bonus plays and updates from the GIVE ME WINS team. With the weekend upon us, it’s more important than ever to smash that follow button because we will be moving out those bonus plays all weekend. So, hit that follow button and don’t get left out in the cold. 🥶 Monday’s newsletter will be MLB and MNF dominant. Here’s hoping that all our tickets are winners. 🥂 We’ll catch y’all Monday with the latest issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter. 🤟