Monday Mayhem!
After a small profit on Sunday, 💵 we’re back looking to start the week off with a bang. Once again, the https://www.rithmm.com/ NFL betting model did its job and put us on the plus side of the ledger. What makes https://www.rithmm.com/ unique is you get all the benefits of a sophisticated, stat-based betting model without the need for any of the advanced technical computer expertise. What the team at Rithmm has done is amazing! Check out https://www.rithmm.com/ now and add sports betting models to your sports handicapping toolbox. For those who want to keep tabs on our daily results or for any period since the start of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter, please head to our verified profile at https://app.sportsdatanow.com/capper-profile?cid=GIVE%20ME%20WINS. As promised on Friday, today’s newsletter is all MLB and MNF. Without any further adieu, it’s time to tell you how we’re going to beat the books today! 🤞
Here’s what’s on tap:
We look for one of Saturday’s NLDS Game 1 losers to bounce back tonight ⚾
We may only have one MLB pitcher prop today, but it’s a great spot to cash 💰
We’re drawn to a play on the total for MNF 🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides: Look for the Dodgers to rebound tonight
Since it adopted its current format, the only predictable thing about the MLB postseason is its unpredictability, which makes handicapping these games a gigantic challenge. As a result, we will continue with half-unit plays on these MLB games until we reach the LCS.
Half-Unit Play: Dodgers ML-150 vs. Diamondbacks: The Dodgers got spanked in Game 1! Los Angeles dropping the series opener was not a huge shock, but how it happened was stunning. On to Game 2, and now that the Dodgers have knocked off the rust after their layoff at the conclusion of the regular season, it’s time for them to get down to business in a must-win spot. Thanks to the Diamondbacks sending their ace Zac Gallen to the hill, we get a much better price on LA tonight. While Gallen has had a terrific season, he is a far better pitcher at home than on the road, sporting a 4.42 ERA on the road versus a 2.47 ERA at home in 2023. To make matters worse for Gallen, he was 0-2 with a 9.90 ERA versus LA this season. His opposite number for the Dodgers is rookie Bobby Miller. Miller is short on experience but long on talent and has handled Arizona well this season. And finally, while it didn’t show in the series opener, Los Angeles has a much more dangerous lineup. Adding all these factors up leads us to believe that LA has a 67% chance to win tonight, which means they should be priced at -200 on the moneyline, so -150 is excellent value. As a result, we’re rolling with the Dodgers to take the win and even the series.
MLB Pitcher Props: One will have to be enough
As we move deeper into the postseason, our opportunities for pitcher prop plays will be more and more limited, which is unfortunate considering that we are up more than 20 units on our props plays since the debut of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter in late August. As always, we will not force things. We will let things come to us.
Max Fried o4.5 K’s (-120): We project Fried a full strikeout above this total. There is excellent value here, even if we have to lay 20 cents. The only we have is that the blister problems Fried dealt with late in the season pop up again and end tonight’s start prematurely.
NFL Week 5: Two dormant offenses will wake up on MNF
We tie a bow around Week 5 in the NFL, looking to add to our modest Sunday profit. Our incredibly successful NFL betting model, courtesy of https://www.rithmm.com/, has taken us to the total for our play tonight.
Packers vs. Raiders o45 (-110): Aaron Jones is the straw that stirs the drink for the Packers offense. After having his touches limited in his return last week, expect the governor to be taken off Jones tonight. That, coupled with improving health on the O-line, should make life much easier for QB Jordan Love, and the effects will show up on the scoreboard in the form of points. The Raiders are in very much the same boat. They get Jimmy Garoppolo back after he missed last week due to a concussion, which will help the Raiders offense immensely. There’s also a style makes fights element to this matchup. Green Bay is a zone-heavy defense, and Garoppolo has played well this season against zone defenses. Throw in that the Raiders will be down one of their starting corners, and I expect both of these offenses to have much more success than they have had in recent weeks. Our NFL betting model, courtesy of https://www.rithmm.com/, which has served us so well this season, projects these two clubs to combine for close to 48 points, giving us a nearly 60% chance to cash on this play. ‘Nuff said, we’re pounding the over.
That’s a wrap, gang! There’s not a ton of action tonight, but we think it will start the week off right. With Week 7 in college football kicking off Tuesday, we will load tomorrow’s newsletter with college football picks along with our MLB Division Series plays. Once again, we implore you to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for all the bonus plays and the latest news and updates from the GIVE ME WINS team. Peace out! ✌️ We’ll catch y’all tomorrow with the Tuesday issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter.