Turnaround Tuesday!
Some days, you’re the hammer; some days, you're the nail. Yesterday, we were the nail, and we got pounded. 😧 We dubbed today Turnaround Tuesday because we have the plays to turn it around and get back on the winning track, and that’s what we will do. This is about long-term results, and in the long term, we have been and will continue to be successful at GIVE ME WINS! 💰Our results can always be verified at https://app.sportsdatanow.com/capper-profile?cid=GIVE%20ME%20WINS. On to today, where we dive back into the MLB playoffs pool with sides and totals galore but no player props and look to start the college football week off on the right foot. Times a-wastin’, so sit back, take five, and read about how we’re going to turn things around today and show the books who’s boss! 😎
Here’s what’s on tap:
Two sides and two totals for tonight’s MLB playoff action⚾
Four big college football plays for tonight, including two road teams that we love 🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides & Totals: Expect both home teams to prevail in low-scoring contests
The MLB postseason continues to prove challenging from a handicapping perspective, but we think we have a good feel for both contests today. We are staying with half-units on all these plays but going with a side and total in each game.
Half-Unit Plays: Twins ML-127 vs. Astros & Game Total u8 (-107): It’s not easy to fade a proven playoff commodity like the Astros in this spot, but we’ve isolated what we believe to be a difference-making edge between two evenly matched teams. The advantage lies in the starting pitching matchup, where we favor Twins starter Sonny Gray over his counterpart for Houston, Cristian Javier. Gray has been great and incredibly consistent all season and has really turned it on down the stretch and into the postseason. Gray has a minuscule 2.08 ERA in seven starts since Sep.1, including five shutout frames versus Toronto in the wild-card round. On the other hand, Javier has had an up-and-down season, with six starts of five or more scoreless innings and five starts of four or more earned runs. His work in September is another red flag, with a 5.06 ERA in five starts. Looking at the total, we believe the scorching hot 🔥Gray will keep the Astros bats in check, and with this being a pivotal postseason game in a short series, look for Dusty Baker to have a very quick hook with Javier. Those two factors should make this one a low-scoring affair that slides under the total.
Half-Unit Plays: Rangers ML-130 vs. Orioles & Game Total u9 (-104): When the Rangers get on a heater like this, just ride the wave.🌊 Since the All-Star break, Texas has been MLB’s streakiest team, prone to long winning and losing streaks, and right now, they are on a tear at the right time. The bats are clicking, manager Bruce Botchy is pulling all the right strings with the pen, and they have been getting great work from their starting pitchers in the playoffs, including tonight’s starter, Nathan Eovaldi. After coming off the IL, Eovaldi didn’t look like he could get me out, much less major league hitters, limping through September with a bloated 9.30 ERA and the advanced analytics (yawn) 🥱 to back it up. Then he spins a gem against the Rays in the wild-card round. We’re convinced that Eovaldi has now found his pre-IL form, which had him considered a contender for the AL Cy Young award. With the young Orioles bats struggling with their first taste of the postseason and Eovaldi back on track, look for the Rangers to do enough against Dean Kremer to win a low-scoring game.
CFB Week 7: The Flames are going to scorch the Gamecocks
Week 7 in college football is here, kicking off with a trio of games tonight, two of which we have found spots that provide us great opportunities to cash.
Liberty -6.5 (-110) vs. Jacksonville St. & Game Total u57.5 (-110): Liberty does not appear to be as good as their record suggests, but their schedule has not offered many challenges, and we don’t believe Jacksonville State will pose much of a challenge. The Flames are 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 against the spread under Jamey Chadwell in his first season. Both Liberty and Jacksonville State have played schedules outside the top 150, which is a major reason for their success. However, Liberty has been dominant in their wins, with a +2.3 yards per play differential, which is top 10 in the country. Jacksonville State is at +0.4 yards per play and has benefited from a +10 turnover differential. Liberty will have to travel from Virginia to Alabama on a short week, but they had a bye two weeks ago and have had time to prepare. Jacksonville State is playing their fourth game in 18 days, including back-to-back road games. The first road game went to overtime, and the second featured 161 plays. Look for a dominant performance from the Flames tonight on both sides of the ball, one in which the Flames hit their season average for points (36) while holding the Gamecocks south of 20.
Louisiana Tech +3 (-109) vs. Middle Tennessee St. & Game Total u55.5 (-110): Styles make fights, and this is a bad matchup for Middle Tennessee State. The Blue Raiders love to throw the football. They pass the ball at the 17th-highest rate in the country. Unfortunately for MTSU, they are 87th in success rate and face a Louisiana Tech pass defense that is fifth in passer success rate allowed, meaning a long night for the Blue Raiders offense. To make matters worse for Middle Tennessee, they have one of the worst defenses in the nation, which should allow a below-average Bulldogs offense to put up enough points to most likely win this game outright. With two poor offenses, one stout defense, and matchups that favor the defenses, look for a low-scoring game that should stay under the total with some room to spare.
That’s a wrap, gang! We’re loaded with action in today’s newsletter, and tomorrow’s will be just as loaded with MLB, CFB, and our first NFL plays for Week 6. Once again, we remind you to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for all the bonus plays and the latest news and updates from the GIVE ME WINS team. We’ll catch y’all tomorrow with the Wednesday issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter. 👍