It's Hump Day and we're Miami bound!
We promised a turnaround on Tuesday, and we delivered! 🎉 By no means does that mean we’re resting on our laurels. We need to keep moving forward and lock in profit again today. We’ve got something for everybody in today’s newsletter: multiple plays on tonight’s college football and MLB postseason action and our first NFL release for Week 6. Our https://www.rithmm.com/ NFL betting model has been outstanding, going 33-19-1 with a 20.3% ROI against the spread. We believe this model will help us to some huge weeks for the balance of the NFL season. Models for the NBA and college hoops should also help us have remarkable success in those markets. Well, enough small talk, on to the business at hand, which is how we’re going to beat the books today! 🍀
Here’s what’s on tap:
Totals are the way to go in today’s MLB playoff action ⚾
A side and total we love from tonight’s college football slate ❤️
A slight road favorite in the NFL that we believe is underpriced 🏈
Here we go!
MLB Totals: We anticipate a slugfest at Target Field
We continue to scuffle our way through the MLB postseason. We have isolated two spots we like on today’s playoff slate. Again, we will stay at a half-unit on all MLB plays until further notice as we deal with the unpredictability of the baseball postseason.
Half-Unit Play: Astros vs. Twins o8 (-110): We faded the Astros yesterday and got bit. We’re tempted to go back to the well today, but we think there is a better way to attack a somewhat unpredictable matchup by targeting the over. Both clubs send struggling pitchers to the hill for today’s contest. Houston hands the ball to José Urquidy, who has had a horrid year and has been just brutal since late August. In his six appearances (1 start) since Aug. 28, Urquidy has a 4.87 ERA with advanced analytics (yawn) 🥱that actually say he has performed worse than that. Urquidy’s opposite number today is Joe Ryan, the owner of a 5.28 ERA in his last six starts. With starting pitchers performing like this, coupled with Yordon Alvarez and the Astros mashing the ball in this series and the way the Twins scorched right-handed pitching the final two months of the season, we look for a slugfest today that flies over the total, possibly in the first five innings.
Half-Unit Play: Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers u10 (-110): Even with a pair of mediocre starters in Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt and LA’s Lance Lynn, this number seems too high for an elimination game in the MLB playoffs. These starters will be on incredibly short leashes, so the game will be in the hands of two strong bullpens at the first sign of trouble, which will suppress scoring. Even after what they have done thus far in the postseason, it’s hard to trust the light-hitting Diamondbacks to have another offensive explosion, and right now, it’s even harder to trust a Dodgers lineup that has taken a snooze at the worst possible time. Considering all these factors, taking the under on a double-digit total seems the intelligent thing to do.
CFB Week 7: The Panthers will feast on the Miners in Miami
Week 7 in college football continues with Conference USA action, and we’re heading to Miami for our plays tonight.
FIU -2 (-110) vs. UTEP & Game Total u44.5 (-110): UTEP has struggled this season, going 0-5 against the spread when facing FBS-level competition. The quarterback situation poses questions for both teams, but the outlook appears more optimistic for Florida International. Keyone Jenkins, who left last week's game due to injury, played well, going 25-for-32 for 250 passing yards and a rushing touchdown before departing. Initial reports indicate Jenkins will start tonight. In contrast, UTEP faces uncertainty with three quarterbacks on the injury list. Gavin Hardison, the starter, remains sidelined with an arm injury, while backups Kevin Hurley and Jake McNamara are undergoing concussion evaluations after head injuries against Louisiana Tech. With UTEP's recent struggles, poor play on the road, and issues at quarterback, it’s hard to fathom how the Miners stay within one score of the Panthers. These two teams have combined to average just 37 points per game this season, and with UTEP facing significant issues at QB, the under looks like an obvious play in a game where both teams will struggle to put up points.
NFL Week 6: Expect the Saints to corral the upstart Texans
It’s time for our first release for Week 6 in the NFL. We will have plays the rest of the week in the newsletter and bonus plays on Sunday morning on Twitter/X.
Saints -1 (-110) vs. Texans: The red-hot 🔥https://www.rithmm.com/ NFL model loves the Saints Sunday, favoring New Orleans by four points and giving this play a 62% chance of cashing! 💵 While the Texans have been one of the best stories and biggest surprises of the early part of the season, they have not faced a defense on the level of the Saints, and we believe that will be the story of this game. Houston has done some good things on offense in the early going, and quarterback C.J. Stroud looks like a star in the making, but a look at last week’s game against the Falcons exposes some of the warts of this young team. Atlanta outgained them by over 100 yards and allowed the Falcons to drive right down the field to kick the winning field goal. If a solid Atlanta defense could limit the Texans to 19 points, imagine what the lethal Saints defense will do. As for the New Orleans offense, they have not been very good but showed some signs of life against the Patriots in Week 5. With quarterback Derek Carr’s shoulder getting better and running back Alvin Kamara rounding into form after returning from a three-game suspension to start the season. Expect the Saints' offense to do enough to keep New Orleans in control of this game most of the way, but the story of this game will be the Saints' defense and how it will slow down the Houston offense.
That’s a wrap, gang! As we promised, today’s newsletter is loaded. Another reminder to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for all the bonus plays and the latest news and updates from the GIVE ME WINS team. Tomorrow’s newsletter will be loaded once again with plays from the MLB playoffs, NFL Thursday Night Football, and at least one college football release. We thank you for supporting this newsletter and encourage you to tell a friend. The GIVE ME WINS team loves putting out this newsletter but needs your help to reach the masses. 🤟 We’ll be back tomorrow with the Thursday issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter. 👍