Turnaround Tuesday!

Monday certainly didn’t start with a bang. But again, it’s a marathon, not a sprint, and our good days are better and more frequent than our bad days, resulting in plus units overall, and that’s the ultimate goal. We’re back looking to turn things around.🤞 Today’s newsletter is back to our customary full five-minute read as pitcher props return along with MLB sides and totals, and the first round of NFL plays for Week 3 are here. Well, let’s get right to it. Sit back, relax, enjoy your favorite beverage, and see how we’re going to rebound and take down the books today. 🙏

Here’s what’s on tap:

• An almost 2-1 underdog that we believe takes us to the pay window 🏦

• Pitcher props are back to make it rain cash 💵

• Two Week 3 NFL plays to move on now 🏈

Here we go!

MLB Sides & Totals: Look for the Phillies to make it two in a row in Hotlanta

Today’s full card of MLB games presents some opportunities that we believe have great value and provide an excellent chance to cash. 

Phillies ML+195 vs. Braves & Game Total u9 (-115): On the surface, it seems sacrilegious to bet on the Braves to drop two in a row and to take the under on a reasonable total with two teams that hit as well as these two, but hear me out. Since clinching the NL East, the Braves have been on cruise control, while the Phillies still have work to do to lock up a playoff berth. So, for what it’s worth, the motivation edge goes to Philadelphia. While Braves starter Spencer Strider is one of the favorites to win the NL Cy Young award, Philly starter Cristopher Sánchez has been great recently, including his loss to Strider and Atlanta in his last start, where he went 7.1 innings, fanning 10 while surrendering four runs. That stat line does not tell the entire story. Sánchez was brilliant in that outing, often making this potent Braves lineup look foolish. Let’s also factor in that the lethal Atlanta bats don’t hit southpaws as well as they do righties, while the Phillies mash right-handed pitching. All this leads us to believe that the Phils will break through for a few runs against Strider while the Braves struggle to hit Sánchez today. Sánchez will exit after four or five innings, with Michael Lorenzen taking over in a two or three-inning bulk role as he readies for relief work in the postseason. While this is not ideal, given Lorenzen’s recent struggles and Atlanta’s prowess against right-handed pitching, we’re not terribly concerned as Lorenzen’s splits show he does his best work the first time through the order, and Braves hitters will only see him once. We expect Philadelphia to carry a small lead late in a pitcher’s duel and their pen to close it out in a game that slides under the total.

Red Sox ML+143 vs. Rangers: We find value with the Red Sox tonight because the Rangers are still trying to stretch out Nathan Eovaldi after his stint on the IL from mid-July to early September. Eovaldi did not have a rehab stint in the minors and is getting his arm strength back in big league action, and the results have not been stellar. In his three starts since his return, Eovaldi has only thrown a total of seven innings and just 3.1 frames in his last outing. His ERA in those starts is a bloated 7.71. It will only get worse for Texas once they turn it over to their bullpen, which has more holes than Swiss cheese. The Rangers’ pitching woes should breathe life into the dormant Boston bats, allowing the Red Sox to score the win and for us to collect on another plus-money wager. 

Mariners vs. A’s u7.5 (-115): This pick is about two starting pitchers who have been pitching very well recently and two lineups that couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn for the last couple of weeks. The Mariners scalding hot bats of late July and early August that turned a disappointing season around are gone, and this Seattle club is scuffling at the plate. The A’s had a short run last month where their bats caught fire, but that fire is out. Starters Luis Castillo and Paul Blackburn should have little trouble keeping the bats in check today, giving us a low-scoring affair that makes the under the way to go.

MLB Pitcher Props: It’s quality over quantity today

After not one prop having the value worthy of a play yesterday, we only find two worth playing today with one that we particularly like.

Drew Rom o3.5 K’s (-102): Rom was whiffing 11 batters per nine innings at Triple-A before being called up by the Cardinals, and the strikeouts have continued with the big club. Rom is stretched out and giving us length, which the market has not adjusted to. Rom went 5.1, fanning seven in his last start. Need we say more?

Nathan Eovaldi o4.5 K’s (+112): The ability to miss bats is there; with Eovaldi striking out about a batter an inning in his career, the question is the length. At plus-money, it’s worth the risk that he goes five innings and goes over the total.

NFL Week 3: The Seahawks will tame the Panthers in Seattle

Here’s another case of football plays we want to get out early to ensure we get the best odds possible. We could see both lines moving to the wrong side of key numbers, forcing us to lay heavy wood to get the lines where we need them to maximize our chances of cashing. 

Seahawks -5.5 (-115) vs. Panthers: This line has already moved from 4.5 to 5.5, and it’s costing us an extra five cents, so move now before it gets to a full touchdown, which it might well be by kickoff. The Panthers' offense is the primary driver for this play. They simply can’t move the ball through the air yet. Bryce Young will be a terrific NFL quarterback one day, and by mid-season, this offense will probably be significantly better than it is now. But right now, it’s an offense with an offensive line that can’t handle pressure, receivers that can’t get open, and a QB not ready to elevate this unit or be asked to do very much. If Carolina can’t run and can’t stay on schedule, their goose is cooked. The Seahawks only allow 2.9 yards per carry in 2023, and while their pass defense is vulnerable, Young and company are not the offense to exploit it. The Seattle offense will not have an easy time with a tough Panthers defense but will do enough to win a low-scoring game by better than a touchdown. 

Bills -6.5 (-110) vs. Commanders: The Bills are not at their best yet, but they are good enough to go on the road and top the Commanders by better than a touchdown. Washington is 2-0, but they have beaten two of the worst teams in the league by a total of six points. Very much like Sunday versus the Raiders, the Bills class will show against an outmanned Commanders bunch. Washington might hang around for a while, but ultimately, Buffalo will run away and hide by at least two scores. 

That’s a wrap gang. We’re calling it turnaround Tuesday at GIVE ME WINS. Remember to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for bonus plays and all the latest from the GIVE ME WINS team. On that happy note, until tomorrow when we meet again for the Wednesday issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter. 👍