Tremendous Thursday!
Wipeout Wednesday wasn’t necessarily a complete success, but it wasn’t a failure, and we’re on to Tremendous Thursday with high hopes for today’s card. We‘ve got you covered with a full complement of MLB sides today, an MLB pitcher prop, and a pair of NFL totals with designs on adding some units to our profit. 🍀 So, let’s get right to it. It's time to take five and see how we’re going to take down the books today. 🙏
Here’s what’s on tap:
Three MLB sides that will take you to the pay window 🏦
One lonely pitcher prop, but it’s a good one 😊
Two NFL totals from our new computer model that will make it rain 💵
Here we go!
MLB Sides: Look for the Cubs to steamroll the Pirates in Chi-Town
Not quite a full schedule of MLB games today, yet we found three spots we like. All sides today, as none of the totals stood out.
Cubs ML-160 vs. Pirates: We’re laying a lot of juice with the Cubs tonight, but everything points to a Chicago victory. The Cubbies bats and bullpen are both in better recent form than their Pirates counterparts. Regarding the starting pitching matchup, Kyle Hendricks has a significant advantage over Johan Oviedo tonight. Hendricks has handled Pittsburgh with ease this season, surrendering just three earned runs over 12 innings, while Oviedo has struggled mightily in September, posting a 5.11 ERA in three starts. To make matters worse for Oviedo and the Pirates, he is 0-2 with a 5.23 ERA versus Chicago this season. Add in that the Cubs need to keep winning to make the playoffs, and Pittsburgh is playing out the string, and I think after the final out, we’ll all be saying CUBS WIN, CUBS WIN!!!
Brewers ML-102 vs. Cardinals: This might be a trap game, but if it is, so be it; we got trapped. We don’t see how, off the recent work of these two clubs, the Cardinals are the favorite with Miles Mikolas as their starter. Mikolas is a bad back-of-the-rotation starter at this stage of his career. He can’t strike out anyone and gives up too much hard contact. His opposite number, Wade Miley, is no great shakes either, but is one of those pitchers despite middling stuff and ordinary at best advanced metrics (yawn) 🥱seems to find a way to get batters out and record wins. So, what is the key to the game in a matchup between two mediocre starting pitchers? The answer is the offense, and the Brewers’ offense looks like the ‘27 Yankees compared to the banged-up and unmotivated Cards. Throw in Milwaukee’s lights-out bullpen, and it’s hard not to like the Brew Crew to take the series finale.
Blue Jays ML+120 vs. Yankees: The sharps are pounding the Blue Jays early at plus money, and we’re hopping on board. It’s not very hard to like Toronto to take the finale and sweep the series despite the Yankees giving the starting nod to Gerrit Cole. The Bronx Bombers simply can’t hit right-handed pitching, and Toronto is sending a good one to the hill in José Berrios. To add to New York’s issues tonight, their usually impenetrable bullpen has been vulnerable lately thanks to injuries and overwork. The Jays will scratch out a couple of runs against Cole, while the Yankees will have no answers for Berrios. Expect Toronto to be in front late and for their bullpen to preserve the lead against the light-hitting Yankees.
MLB Pitcher Props: One is the loneliest number
With the typically light Thursday MLB schedule and the tightening of the pitcher props market, there is only one play that meets our criteria. Again, no need to force things. We will let the market come to us.
Zach Eflin u6.5 K’s (-105): Eflin is projected a full strikeout under this total, giving us 27% positive EV.
NFL Week 3: No fireworks in San Fran tonight
Week 3 in the NFL is here, and we have a pair of totals picks from our NFL model, which was built for us by the fantastic people at Rithmm. They may not be able to spell, lol 🤣but boy, can they put together computer models for handicapping sports. If you have always wanted a computer model to help in your handicapping process but never had the technical savvy to make it happen, you need to check out their website at www.rithmm.com to see what they have going on. You can do a simple and effective model with house factors from the Rithmm team or customize your factors with more stats than you ever imagined. You can even backtest your model with three years of data and track your results going forward. If that’s not enough, they have a discord channel where you can speak with the team about the latest Rithmm news and get help developing your model. You can build NFL, CFB, NBA, WNBA, and CBB models, with NHL and MLB on the way. Again, it is an amazing piece of technology and a great resource to add to your handicapping toolbox. That’s rithmm.com. Tell them you heard about them at GIVE ME WINS. Now, on to the plays.
Giants vs. 49ers u44 (-110): Our computer model has the total at 41 points and a win probability of close to 59% on this play. The reasoning is clear: Outside of an offensive explosion in the second half against Arizona on Sunday, the Giants offense has looked brutal. It all boils down to New York’s ability to protect the quarterback. They were able to do that in the second half against the Cardinals, but the 49ers ain’t the Cardinals. The Giants will again be without LT Andrew Thomas and lose starting LG Ben Bredeson for this matchup. So, a bad offensive line has to face a dominant pass rush without the entire starting left side of the line. It looks like a long night for the Giants offense. Oh, and did we mention New York will be without their best offensive player, running back Saquon Barkley? How does New York put up more than 10 points tonight? As for the 49ers, they come in healthy and are led on offense by a dominant run game that will grind out yards, put up points, and eat up time. Look for the 49ers to be in complete control by halftime and use their running game to ice this one in the second half, keeping this one under the total.
Panthers vs. Seahawks u42.5 (-110): Our Rithmm computer model places this total at 38.5 and gives us a win probability of 63%. It’s plain to see that at this point in the season, the Panthers do not have an offense capable of moving the ball or finishing drives when their stout defense hands them opportunities in plus territory. The Seahawks have a suspect pass defense, but Carolina doesn’t have the tools to exploit that weakness, and teams are only logging 2.9 yards per carry against Seattle on the ground, so leaning on the ground game won’t be a recipe for success for the Panthers. With the injuries across the offensive line for Seattle, look for a run-dominant offensive attack with just enough passing to keep a tough Panthers defense honest. This game should be a good old-fashioned rock fight in Seattle on Sunday that we like to stay well under this total.
That’s a wrap gang. We debut our NFL computer model with two plays for Week 3 and will have many more for this weekend’s slate of NFL games. The Friday newsletter will have all our daily MLB goodies, and some college football plays. Remember to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for bonus plays and all the latest from the GIVE ME WINS team. There will be a plethora of bonus plays in both the NFL and CFB this weekend, so make sure you give our Twitter/X account a follow so you don’t miss out. Hopefully, we’re all cashing winners today before we meet again tomorrow to wrap up the week with the Friday issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter.