TGIF!
Thank God it’s Friday! This was a rough week, but we hope to have a major rebound this weekend starting tonight. 🤞 The highlight of the day yesterday was our first play with our new NFL computer model courtesy of http://www.rithmm.com cashed, and we expect that to be the first of many. Today’s issue is loaded with plays across today’s MLB slate and a pair from tonight’s college football schedule. The time has come for you to take five minutes and see how we’re going to regroup and take down the books today. 🙏
Here’s what’s on tap:
Underdogs rule the roost today in MLB ⚾
A pair of pitcher props to line your pockets with cash 💰
Two CFB plays from the Boise St.-SDSU matchup that we love🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides: The value is in the underdogs today
This will be the strangest MLB card you’ve ever seen from us! Four underdogs, including three huge prices, and only one favorite. These are the spots where we see value, and that’s how we’re attacking MLB today.
Nationals ML+217 vs. Braves: We can’t believe we’re writing this either. Nationals starter Patrick Corbin is one of our favorite fades, but he has pitched better recently and cost us some money, so if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. Washington is another team that recently has started hitting very well against righties, and while the Braves lineup is always lethal, they are less so against southpaws. Now, Corbin may not be good enough to slow down the relentless Atlanta lineup, but at better than 2-1 on our money, we will bank on Corbin’s better recent form, a lineup performing well lately, and what has become a solid bullpen to find a way to take one against a team trying to line everything up for the playoffs.
Mets ML+143 vs. Phillies: Yes, the Phillies are the better team in most areas, but if you look deeper into tonight’s matchup, you will find that the edges are not large enough to pass up 45 cents with the Mets. Very quietly, New York has hit the ball well recently and could battle Philadelphia run for run tonight based on the clubs' respective offensive output over the last few weeks. Outside of incredible run support for Phillies starter Taijuan Walker, which has resulted in a 15-5 mark on the season, there is little to separate his performance from his Mets counterpart, Tylor Megill. The recent form of the New York pen doesn’t make you run for cover either, so while the Phils certainly should be the favorite, getting 45 cents in a matchup that, from an analytics standpoint, is pretty even is too good to pass up.
Diamondbacks ML-104 vs. Yankees: Plain and simple, should be a bigger favorite here! Despite yesterday’s win over Toronto, the numbers show a Yankees team that can’t hit right-handed pitching. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, have been knocking the cover off the ball the last two weeks, especially against righties, and New York is sending a very ordinary one to the mound today in Luke Weaver. Weaver is performing so well this season that two playoff contenders gave up on him. Even the one edge the Yankees can usually count, their bullpen is no longer an advantage due to a rash of injuries and overwork, which has them sucking fumes down the stretch. Between the advantages we detailed above and the clear motivation edge with Arizona in a fight for a playoff spot and New York riding out the string, getting plus money on the D-Backs is a no-brainer play.
White Sox ML+195 vs. Red Sox: We’ll make this one short and ask one simple question. Should the Red Sox be a better than 2-1 favorite over the GIVE ME WINS softball team right now, much less a major league baseball team? The answer is no. Even though the White Sox are not a very good major league team, they are one nonetheless. So take the 90 cents and roll with the Pale Hose.
Royals ML+203 vs. Astros: We’ve made some cash with the Royals recently, so let’s go back to the well at a huge price tonight. We’ve talked multiple times in recent newsletters about the Royals hitting well over the last month. Plus, besides getting touched up in his previous start on Sep. 16 against these very same Astros, Royals starter Cole Ragans has been terrific since being acquired from the Rangers in mid-July. The Royals have even managed to cobble together a decent bullpen. Again, this is another case where the favorite is the better team, but on this night, things close the gap between the favorite and the underdog, making this play at this price make sense.
MLB Pitcher Props: Two is better than one
Once again, the pitcher's props market is light on quality plays, but we did isolate two that we like for today.
Shane Bieber o4.5 K’s (+130): Bieber makes his first start since the All-Star break and, according to Guardians manager Terry Francona, will be good for around 80 pitches, which, if he pitches decently, should be five innings. Prior to this season, Bieber was good for at least a strikeout per inning. We’re projecting him at a shade over five strikeouts and getting plus money, which gives us a positive EV of 29%. That equals a play for us.
Corbin Burnes u6.5 K’s (-105): We project Burnes better than half a strikeout under this total at a short price, making this a good value.
College Football Week 4: The Broncos should trample the Aztecs in San Diego
Out of the four games on tonight’s college football slate, we found one game that gave us two plays we’re stoked about.
Boise St. -6 (-110) vs. San Diego St. & Game Total o45.5 (-112): The linesmakers project Boise State to score 26 points based on the side and total lines for this matchup. We expect the Broncos to put up 30+ tonight thanks to a new-look offense averaging 401 yards per game at 5.8 yards per play. The San Diego State defense has been a major disappointment this season, surrendering 436 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play to some pedestrian offense, including an Ohio Bobcats team that lost their starting quarterback in their matchup. The Aztecs' new offense has been a bad fit for QB Jalen Mayden, who had a terrific 2022 season but is averaging just 5.1 yards per pass play this year. While the Broncos gave points and yards in bunches to elite offenses in Washington and Central Florida, SDSU will pose no such challenges. With Boise likely putting up better than 30 while winning by somewhere in the neighborhood of 10-14 points, both the Broncos and the over are smart plays tonight.
That’s a wrap gang. Not the easiest of weeks, but the turnaround is coming, and we believe it starts tonight. Please, please, please follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for not only all the bonus plays but updates from the GIVE ME WINS team. For example, yesterday, we had an update on the Carolina-Seattle total we gave out when injury news hit immediately after we published the newsletter. If you follow us @give_me_wins, you will have the update. This going to be a huge weekend for bonus plays. CFB, NFL, and pitcher props will all be posted on Twitter/X all weekend, so hit that follow button to keep from being left out. Hopefully, we’re hitting the pay window all weekend long. We’ll see y’all Monday with the next issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter. 👍