Titanic Tuesday!
A very solid Monday, with the https://www.rithmm.com/ NFL computer model leading the way with a 3-0 mark. 👍 We’re not resting on our laurels because Tuesday means a full slate of MLB games that presents us with some great opportunities to cash winning tickets today. 💰 Tuesday also means it’s time to start getting some early plays out for this week’s college football action and lock in the best odds possible. So, let’s hop right to it and tell you how we’re going to beat the books today! 🤑
Here’s what’s on tap:
There’s lots of value on the moneyline in MLB today ⚾
No pitcher props today, but a hitter prop that will send you to the pay window 🏦
Two CFB plays to lock in now to beat the line movement🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides & Totals: Expect Hunter Greene and the Reds to steamroll the Guardians
Navigating the last week of the MLB regular season can always be a tricky proposition from a handicapping perspective. With some teams having postseason births and seedings at stake and some teams riding out the string, it might seem obvious on the surface how to attack things, but how teams handle these situations is the X-factor that can be hard to gauge. That said, we think we have a handle on five plays spread over three games from today’s full schedule of baseball action.
Reds ML-103 & TT o3.5 (-135) vs. Guardians: The Reds are still in the hunt for the final NL wild-card spot, while the Guardians are making tee times 🏌️for next week, so the motivation edge is clear. While Cincinnati is a very young team that is not playing great with a playoff berth on the line, this looks like an ideal get-right spot for them. The Reds are giving the ball to Hunter Greene, who has been dominant in his last five starts, sporting a 1.50 ERA and even better advanced metrics (yawn) 🥱. The Guardians counter with the awful Lucas Giolito. On more than one occasion, we have discussed how brutal Giolito has been this season. Here’s a stat that says it all: The team record behind Giolito is 2-12 in his past 14 starts. Look for Cinci to jump all over Giolito tonight, easily hitting the over on the team total as they cruise to a victory.
Astros ML+130 vs. Mariners & Game o7.5 (+100): The moneyline play on the Astros is simply about value. These two teams are once again very evenly matched, much as they were last night, so we are siding with Houston because we’re getting 30 cents. As for the total, both of these lineups can rake, and neither of these pitchers has pitched especially well since the calendar flipped to September, so we expect plenty of offense tonight, especially in the early innings. The only possible fly in the ointment might be that while Mariners starter George Kirby has not pitched particularly well lately, he does pitch better at home. All in all, we like the value on both the Astros and the over on the game total tonight, so that’s how we’re rolling.
Cubs ML+126 vs. Braves: The Cubs are fighting for their playoff lives the last week of the season as they try and hang on to their slim one-game lead for the final playoff spot in the National League, while the Braves want to stay healthy, rest up and get ready for the NL Division Series. So, motivation tonight favors the Cubs. The starting pitching matchup also favors Chicago, with southpaw Justin Steele toeing the slab for the Cubbies, opposed by Bryce Elder. Elder is no slouch, but he is not Steele, who is having an exceptional season and has developed into a true ace and stopper who comes up big in the biggest of spots. Finally, throw in that the potent Atlanta lineup doesn’t mash against lefties the way it does righties, and I think we have all the ingredients for a much-needed road win for Chicago.
MLB Hitter Props: This one is too good to pass up
The pitcher prop market offered us nothing worthy of a play today, but we did find a hitter prop that’s too good to pass on.
Dalton Varsho u0.5 Hits (+118): Varsho will face the red-hot Michael King tonight, and Varsho is hitting right-handed pitching at just a .202 clip, so we love his chances of taking the collar tonight, and we’re getting plus money to boot.
CFB Week 5: The Midshipmen and Bulls will light up the scoreboard
Week 5 in college football is quickly approaching, so it’s time we get out some of the plays we like for Saturday, especially those we believe there is a chance for line movement that won’t favor us.
South Florida vs. Navy o54 (-110): This total opened at 53 and promptly moved to 54. We’re already seeing 54.5 and 55 out there, so the time to move on this play is now to lock in o54 at -110 while you can still get it. I’m sure you’re shocked to see us on an over involving a service academy team. Yes, Navy still runs the option, but they are making a concerted effort to open up the offense. We didn’t see any of that in their nationally televised Week 0 tilt with Notre Dame, but on Sept. 14 versus Memphis, Navy threw the ball 20 times in a game that was close throughout. Yes, you read that right, 20 times. So, while the Midshipmen will never remind you of Western Kentucky, they are not going to slow the game down the way Navy teams traditionally do. South Florida plays fast, like Western Kentucky fast. The Bulls are averaging 84 plays per game (courtesy of TeamRankings), which is No.4 in the nation, and outside of their game against Alabama, which was played in a driving rainstorm, all of USF’s games have easily cleared the 60-point plateau. The Middies will slow this game down some, but not nearly as much as many would expect and not nearly enough to keep the total below 54.
TCU -9.5 (-134) vs. West Virginia: We’re paying a tax to get under a key number, but don’t hate this at all at -10.5 at -110 if that’s your preference. We’re good on TCU to 13 if it climbs that far. Everyone has dismissed the Horned Frogs after their Week 1 loss to Colorado. That’s not wise. Since then, TCU has scored quality wins over Houston and SMU. The effort against SMU was particularly impressive, with the Horned Frogs putting up 34 points while totaling 457 total yards, no turnovers, and just two punts. That’s way too much offense for a punchless West Virginia team to deal with. The Mountaineers have not scored more than 20 points versus an FBS team this season and may again be without starting quarterback Garrett Greene, who is still nursing a foot injury. WVU has an impressive defense, but at some point, you have to score to win, and we don’t see West Virginia scoring enough points on Saturday to stay within hailing distance of TCU.
That’s a wrap gang. Monday was a good start to the week, but there is much more work to be done. Please follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for not only all the bonus plays but also updates from the GIVE ME WINS team. We regularly post on Twitter/X, so hitting that follow button on our profile is well worth the trouble. Tomorrow’s newsletter will be another big issue with all our regular MLB goodies and our first NFL plays for Week 4. On that happy note, we’re outta here, lol. 🤣 We’ll see y’all tomorrow with the Hump Day issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter.