It's Hump Day, and we're pirates today!
Tuesday wasn’t half bad but could have been even better had it not been for Seiya Suzuki channeling his inner little leaguer. 😡 If you don’t know what we mean, go watch the highlights or, should I say, lowlights of last night’s Cubs-Braves game. As always, we dust ourselves off and come out swinging. We have our normal complement of MLB sides, totals and pitcher props, and a pair of very intriguing NFL picks for Sunday—no reason to wait any longer. Let’s dive in and tell you how we’re going to beat the books today!🍀
Here’s what’s on tap:
We go back to the well with two of our four MLB picks ⚾
Pitcher props return looking to make it rain cash 💰
Two NFL plays to lock in now before the line moves 🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides & Totals: We’re going back to the well with the Reds and Astros tonight
Today’s MLB board doesn’t present as much value as we saw yesterday, but we have found four spots we like, including two plays where we ride the same train as yesterday, looking for success.
Reds ML+115 vs. Guardians: We cashed on two picks yesterday with Cincinnati, the moneyline, and the team total. Of all our plays today, this is the one where we find the most value. We believe the Reds have the edge in nearly every facet of today’s matchup, and we’re not alone. Sharp money is pouring in on Cinci, with the Reds being bet on under half the tickets written but receiving over 90% of the money wagered. The sharps like it, and our analysis likes it. When those things come together, it’s an automatic play.
Rays ML-124 vs. Red Sox: We considered the Rays yesterday but ultimately didn’t pull the trigger; today, we’re firing on Tampa Bay. This is another case where our analysis finds that the Rays have the advantage in almost every area of this matchup. Despite a spirited effort last night, the Red Sox are a veteran team with nothing to play for that has been mailing it in for over a week, while the Rays still hold a faint hope of winning the AL East. The Tampa bats have also been in better form down the stretch, as has the bullpen, despite yesterday’s struggles. And finally, the Rays have a slight advantage in the starting pitching matchup with Tyler Glasnow over Bryan Bello. While none of these advantages is overwhelming, they all combine to be a significant enough edge to make this a play we like. Granted, we think the line should be closer to -115, but we’re rolling with Tampa Bay anyway.
Cubs vs. Braves u10.5 (-120): This total is dropping fast, so lock in 10.5 while you still can. We are good with this play to u10. We are seeing a lot of sharps on this under, which grabbed our attention in the wee hours of the morning. No, we never sleep at GIVE ME WINS, lol.🥱 Multiple computer models we employ for baseball have this under hitting, including two that have it going under this total by better than a full run. Much like the Reds moneyline play, when our resources take a definitive direction on a pick, and the smart money goes in the same direction, we don’t ask questions; we just pounce.
Astros ML-120 vs. Mariners: It’s the rubber game of the three-game series between these two clubs, and the rubber game for our moneyline plays in this series. We backed the Astros in the first two games at plus money because that’s where we saw the value in games that were near tossups. We don’t have this one as a toss-up. We believe Houston has a 63% chance to win the game, meaning in our eyes, the price on the Astros should be -170, and it’s only costing us -120 to play Houston, so that’s significant value. All the slight advantages we saw for the Astros in the first two games of the series we see tonight, and we give a sizeable edge to the ‘Stros in the starting pitching matchup with Framber Valdez over Bryce Miller. That’s enough for us to go back to the well with Houston.
MLB Pitcher Props: The market has been good to us today
We’re back in action with our pitcher props today. We found quite a bit of value today compared to yesterday’s very tight market.
Bryce Miller u4.5 K’s (+132): A contact pitcher taking on a formidable lineup who we project a shade under four strikeouts. At plus money, this play has excellent EV.
Johan Oviedo u5.5 K’s (-125): Our projections have Oviedo at just under five strikeouts today, so even having to lay 25 cents, this play still has excellent positive EV.
Sean Manaea o3.5 K’s (-125): Another case where we are laying wood, but the value justifies it because Manaea is projected over a full strikeout above this total.
Matt Waldron o3.5 K’s (+100): This pick is a little outside of our usual criteria from a consensus value standpoint, but one of our projections had this as a huge value spot, so we’re going to take a stab.
NFL Week 4: Ride the Buccaneers on the moneyline against the banged-up Saints
These are two plays for your NFL Sunday to lock in now because we do not expect these prices to be there Sunday, so act fast.
Buccaneers ML+145 vs. Saints: Our NFL computer model from https://www.rithmm.com/ has the Buccaneers winning this game outright by almost two points with Derek Carr under center for the Saints and by six points with Jameis Winston at quarterback for New Orleans. Our model's thinking aligns with the thoughts of Saints management, who added Carr to the roster even with Winston already under contract. So, expect what was a very ordinary Saints offense with Carr at the controls to move in reverse with Winston at the helm. Also, look for New Orleans to be on the wrong side of the turnover battle thanks to Winston, who turns the football over as often as they turn over the rooms at a day-rate hotel. If you don’t know what that is, look it up, but let’s just say it’s a lot. While the tremendous Saints defense will keep them in this game until the end, much like last week's loss to the Packers, expect the New Orleans defense to wilt under the pressure of an offense that can’t sustain drives and will turn over the football with Winston at QB. No need to grab the points take the payout on the moneyline since we like the Bucs to win outright.
Bills -2.5 (-120) vs. Dolphins: This line is headed in the wrong direction, and the Bills will be at -3 very soon and -3.5 or worse by kickoff. The Dolphins are getting lots of love, and rightfully so, for hanging 70 on the Broncos, but it’s one game and doesn’t count twice. Don’t forget the Bills pasted the Commanders 37-3 in a game they spent the second half on cruise control, so let’s realize that Miami wasn’t the only team with a dominant effort Sunday. A glance at the look-ahead line from the summer for this matchup had the Bills as a 5.5 favorite, so we’re getting excellent value here. Our https://www.rithmm.com/ computer model has Buffalo winning this game by six points. The Dolphins may have made the big splash in Week 3, but look for Buffalo to show Miami who the kingpin of the division is and win this game by somewhere around a touchdown or better.
That’s a wrap gang. Tuesday was another decent day that could have been better. Damn you, Seiya Suzuki. 🙎♂️We can’t stress enough the value of following us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for not only all the bonus plays but also updates from the GIVE ME WINS team. We regularly post bonus plays on Twitter/X, so hitting that follow button on our profile will send you to the pay window 🏦, and that’s why we’re here. The Thursday newsletter will be loaded with football plays, including our action on TNF. We’ll catch y’all tomorrow with the Tremendous Thursday issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter. 👍