Philadelphia Freedom
Monday means a new week and new beginnings. Last week was a mixed bag, but we turn the page and look ahead to big things this week. 🙏 Now that we have a few weeks of NFL and college football regular season action in the books, we expect our results to pick up as they historically have as the season progresses. Let’s dive right in and tell you how we’re going to make the books sweat today! 😰
Here’s what’s on tap:
We take advantage of terrible weather in the Northeast and pounce on an under on the diamond ⚾
Two pitcher props that will make it rain cash 💵
A favorite on MNF we feel is underpriced🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides & Totals: Runs will be few and far between in the Bronx this afternoon
It’s a light schedule in MLB today, but despite just four games on the docket, we’ve found three spots we like.
Yankees vs. Diamondbacks u7.5 (-115): We typically reserve the weather factor in baseball totals for Wrigley Field, where the wind conditions have a considerable effect on the game, but this afternoon’s contest in the Bronx should be impacted in a major way by the weather conditions, and that is the backbone of this play. The forecast is for 20 mph winds blowing in with dank, drizzly conditions. Plain and simple, these are bad conditions for hitting a baseball and scoring runs. When you also factor in that neither of these lineups is exactly murders row, and both clubs are sending quality starters to the bump this afternoon, this one has all the makings of a contest that slides under this low total.
Astros ML+115 vs. Mariners: This play is all about value. These two teams are very evenly matched tonight, from the starting pitching matchup to the bullpens to the lineups and even the struggles over their last 10 games. If these teams were on a neutral field, we would price the Astros as a 25-30-cent favorite, so making the Mariners a 30-cent favorite seems a bit steep. We’re grabbing the value in this line and rolling with Houston at plus money.
Giants ML+105 vs. Padres: Like the Astros-Mariners matchup, this game looks like a tossup with a chance to get some plus money. Plus, while the Padres have been scalding hot 🔥, winning nine of their last ten to vault themselves back into the fringes of the playoff chase, the Giants hand the ball to one of the most undervalued pitchers in baseball in Logan Webb. Webb would be a top contender for the NL Cy Young award if he received better run support. His opposite number tonight, Blake Snell, is one of those contenders, but a look at the advanced analytics show (yawn) 🥱 shows that Webb is pitching better this season and over their last five starts. Look for Webb to silence the San Diego bats while San Fran scratches out a couple of runs against Snell, allowing the Giants to pick up the win in a low-scoring contest at Oracle Park.
MLB Pitcher Props: A small market yields two excellent opportunities today
We’re pleasantly surprised to find two pitcher props plays today with only four games scheduled in MLB, with both at plus money to boot!
Patrick Sandoval u5.5 K’s (+122): Our projections have Sandoval at five strikeouts today. With Sandoval at +122, we are getting over 25% positive EV. That’s a play!
Justin Verlander u6.5 K’s (+108): Verlander is not fanning hitters at the same clip as in years past. Verlander is striking out less than eight hitters per nine innings. With Verlander likely to go six or seven innings at the most, we like JV to sneak under the total.
NFL Week 3: The Eagles will soar in Tampa
An extra MNF game on the slate for tonight doubles our opportunities to isolate plays we like. We have found two plays with our computer model courtesy of https://www.rithmm.com/. Check out Rithmm if you have always wanted to build a computer betting model but were scared of the advanced technical requirements. Well, Rithmm handles all that fancy tech stuff; you grab the stats you believe best forecast winners and build the factors to put in your model, or you can use Rithmm’s prebuilt factors. There are many different ways to go, so head to https://www.rithmm.com/ and start building your winning computer betting models today.
Eagles -5 (-108) vs. Buccaneers: Both clubs are 2-0, with the Buccaneers being one of the NFL’s big surprises and the Eagles not yet hitting their stride. The genesis of Tampa Bay’s great start is the excellent play of quarterback Baker Mayfield, a level of play we don’t believe he can sustain. With Philadelphia getting cornerback James Bradbury back in the starting lineup, the Eagles' secondary should match up well with a terrific Bucs receiving core. Philly hasn’t quite hit their stride with their pass rush, but look for that to change tonight with the Eagles taking advantage of the Buccaneers' shaky interior O-line to push the pocket into Mayfield and bring back the Baker we all know and love to wager against. 😂 We also believe this is the week the Philly offense finally clicks on all cylinders. Overall, we see this as a spot where class shows through, with the vastly superior Eagles winning by close to double digits on the road.
Bengals vs. Rams u44 (-110): Our model and the sharps are aligned on the under tonight. While less than 40% of the tickets written are on the under, over 80% of the money has been wagered on the under, a clear indication of sharp action. It’s a total we think is good whether Joe Burrow plays tonight or not, and if he is ruled out, the total will drop like a stone, so lock in this total now to get the best possible number.
That’s a wrap gang. We’re looking forward to a great week ahead here at GIVE ME WINS. Please follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for not only all the bonus plays but also updates from the GIVE ME WINS team. We regularly post on Twitter/X, so for the minimal effort of hitting follow on our profile, you will get bonus plays, information, and updates. It’s well worth the effort! Tomorrow’s newsletter will be packed with all our daily MLB picks and analysis, along with some early week CFB and/or NFL plays, so that we can lock in the best odds on lines moving in the wrong direction. We’ll see y’all tomorrow with the Tuesday issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter. 👍