Time to get back on track!
Yesterday was a pile of💩, but our pitcher props continue to shine, as do our plays on Twitter/X, and we are up several units overall since our debut. Follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for additional plays and all the latest from GIVE ME WINS. Take five minutes and let us give you a laugh or two while we tell you how we’re going to hammer the books today.🔨
Here’s what’s on tap today:
Back to the well with a home dog on the moneyline in MLB⚾
Pitcher props to send you to the pay window🤑
A quartet of Week 1 CFB plays🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides: Nationals fillet slumping Marlins in Washington
It’s a light MLB slate with only four games on the docket, so there isn’t much for us to work with, but we have one play we like tonight on the diamond.
Nationals ML+144 vs. Marlins: We get a nice price here because the Marlins have an edge in the starting pitching department, sending Braxton Garrett to the hill opposite Joan Adon, but I don’t believe that matchup will be the deciding factor tonight. I look for the stronger Nationals lineup to be the difference. Miami has struggled to hit right-handed pitching all season, including six scoreless innings versus Adon in Miami on Aug. 25. Washington, on the other hand, rakes pretty well against southpaws. While Garrett is the better pitcher, the gap between him and Adon is not as large as it appears. With the Nats holding a slight edge in the bullpen and not having to deal with travel up from south Florida following Hurricane Idalia, the Nationals look to have enough advantages to win the series opener in Washington.
MLB Prop Plays: An opener’s short night presents a great opportunity
Only four games on tap today in MLB, so our opportunities for value in these pitcher props are very limited, but we found two we like to cash.
Spencer Strider u7.5 K’s (+120): Taking an under in a K prop with Spencer Strider can be tricky, but the Dodgers don’t whiff much, and our projection is about half a strikeout under this total at plus money. As we like to say, no risk it, no biscuit.
Matt Manning u4.5 K’s (+120): Manning doesn’t miss many bats, and we don’t believe he will this afternoon in the series finale against the Yankees. Our projections have this play at an almost 25% positive EV, so let’s grab this bet at plus money.
College Football Week 1: Minnesota spoils Matt Rhule’s Nebraska debut
Week 1 in college football is here! A nice sprinkling of games tonight and Friday to get you ready for a jam-packed Labor Day weekend of football action. Here are four games we like for this weekend, with three more coming tomorrow with an eye on building upon our Week 0 success.
Minnesota -7 (-110) vs. Nebraska: We believe Matt Rhule is the man to turn around the Nebraska program, just not in Year 1. Looking back at his successful rebuilds at Temple and Baylor, in his first season at the helm, he won just two games at Temple and only one at Baylor, and his clubs were often uncompetitive. Look for more of the same this year from the Cornhuskers. On the other hand, P.J. Fleck already has a solid program at Minnesota. The Golden Gophers have won nine games each of the last two seasons. Taking into account the three points for home-field advantage, the books are trying to tell us that Minnesota is only four points better than Nebraska. We’re not buying it. Throw in that the home team has won seven straight while going 5-2 against the number in this series, and I think we have enough checkmarks on the Minnesota side of the ledger to lay the wood and roll with the Gophers.
Temple vs. Akron o56 (-110): The offenses will rule the roost Saturday in Philadelphia. Big things are expected from sophomore quarterback E.J. Warner and a Temple Owls offense that ranks 20th nationally in returning offensive production. They should get plenty of cooperation from a leaky Akron defense. The Zips offense, however, could be something to get excited about with DJ. Irons returning at quarterback. Akron head coach Joe Morehead’s teams always take a big step forward in his second season, and it should be no exception with Akron. Temple wins a shootout, but the play is the over as these two offenses will soar past the total.
South Florida vs. Western Kentucky u71 (-110): Every one of my computer models has this one at least four points under this total. It’s understandable why this total is set so high; Western Kentucky is one of the most prolific offenses in the country and plays at one of the fastest paces in college football. But South Florida returns nine starters on defense and had all offseason to prepare for the unique Hilltoppers offense. That should allow the Bulls to have some success slowing down the Western Kentucky offensive attack. South Florida only returns four starters on offense, including quarterback Gerry Bohanon, so don’t expect a lot of fireworks from the Bulls offense. While we don’t see a low-scoring game per se, we don’t anticipate the pinball machine-like scoring we usually get in a Western Kentucky game.
North Carolina vs. South Carolina u65 (-110): Here’s a game that, if it was taking place in the middle of the end of the season, I think we might be on the other side of this total, but while both offenses can hang up points in bunches, there are quite a few questions surrounding both units. On the UNC side, while Drake Maye is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, who will he throw the ball to? The Tar Heels lost their top two wide receivers from last season, making things easier on a shaky South Carolina defense whose strength is their secondary. As for the Gamecocks offense, QB Spencer Rattler is surrounded by plenty of capable options, but his inconsistency could short-circuit a potentially potent offense. Factor in that both teams will be adjusting to new offensive coordinators, and we just see this total as too high.
That’s a wrap gang. We’re confident this is the day we snap our two-day slide and get back on track. The Friday newsletter is going to be a big one with a full complement of MLB games on tap and a load of college football all weekend. We’ll see you at the pay window!!!