It's hump day and we're looking to rebound!
After a big Monday, we took a small step back but are still up units for the week. We’ve found lots of great opportunities in MLB to get us rolling and another early play for Week 1 in college football. So sit back and enjoy a tasty beverage and take a read on how we’re going to bang the books today.👿
Here’s what’s on tap today:
Home dog on the moneyline in MLB that we love❤️
Pitcher props poised to cash💰
An early Week 1 CFB play that might surprise you😲
Here we go!
MLB Sides: The Red Sox will pounce on a shaky Framber Valdez in Boston
Orioles ML-164 vs. White Sox: Despite the steep price, we’re actually getting value here. The books always tax elite brand name starting pitching, and the White Sox are sending Dylan Cease to the hill today. Cease’s reputation is that of an ace starting pitcher, and in the past, he has pitched like one. The Cease you're getting today is not that pitcher. Cease has been putting a small village on the basepaths lately, and been getting lit up. Cease is walking an incredible 7.43 batters per nine innings and has a bloated 8.22 ERA in his last five starts. Baltimore doesn’t usually draw a ton of free passes, but today, it will look like a conga line they will be walking so much. This Orioles team can rake and, with all those runners on base, should put up a boatload of runs. Baltimore is the better team in every facet, and Cease’s reputation gets us a discount, so lay the juice and roll with the Orioles.
Phillies ML-162 vs. Angels: The Angels look like they have quit on the season, while the Phillies want to stockpile wins to lock up the top wild card spot in the NL. Philly has feasted on lefthanded pitching, and Los Angeles sends the very ordinary Reid Detmers to the bump this afternoon. That should mean plenty of runs for the Phils. The Angels, on the other hand, will face the underrated Christopher Sánchez. Look for Sánchez to stonewall a weak LA lineup as the Phillies cruise to an easy win and the series sweep.
Red Sox ML+123 vs. Astros: The Red Sox should not be a home dog in this spot. I know Boston is watching their playoff hopes fade away, but today’s opponent is one of the teams ahead of them in the AL wild-card standings, so after dropping the first two games of the series, look for the Sox to come out focused and motivated. The big reason we’re on Boston today is the price and the opportunity to fade Framber Valdez at plus money. Valdez has been horrible since no hitting Cleveland on Aug.1. Many will point to his last start as a return to form with seven no-hit frames versus the Tigers. There are two flaws in that thinking. One, Valdez couldn’t find the plate again, walking five, and two, it was the light hitting Tigers. If his control issues continue as I expect, the Red Sox will make him pay, allowing us to cash at plus money.
Rays ML-115 vs. Marlins: I really like the Rays at this price tonight in Miami. When the price is so small on the team with the better starting pitcher, the better lineup, and the better bullpen, you pounce, and that’s what we’re doing. Rays starter Zach Eflin is a veteran who will learn from his poor performance in a loss to the Marlins on July 26. Since that start, Eflin has posted a 3.21 ERA in five starts with even better-advanced metrics. In contrast, Miami starter Jesus Lúzardo has been awful in his last five starts. Tampa’s stout lineup should make this a long evening for Lúzardo, allowing the Rays to sweep the short two-game battle of the Sunshine State.
MLB Prop Plays: An opener’s short night presents a great opportunity
It’s a full schedule tonight in MLB that didn’t offer as many value opportunities as we usually see. We have found three that tickle our fancy.
Angel Zerpa u3.5 K’s (-118): Zerpa likely won’t go deep into tonight’s game, considering his longest outing of the season is just four innings. We project Zerpa at 2.85 strikeouts, making this an excellent value play.
Darius Vines u4.5K’s (-118): Vines makes his big league debut for Atlanta tonight. Vines wasn’t a dominant strikeout pitcher in the minors, and his underlying advanced metrics were ordinary at Triple-A this season. Throw him in the light air of Colorado, and this should be a short night’s work for Vines, allowing this under to hit.
Bryce Miller u6.5 (+106): Miller is a tremendous young pitcher who doesn’t fan many hitters. We project Miller a half strikeout under this total and get some plus money. ‘Nuff said.
College Football Week 1: An under that may surprise surprise you
We’re just one day away from the kickoff of Week 1 of the college football slate, and we have an under that we think will throw you for a loop. We will have plenty of college football picks and analysis with a light schedule in MLB tomorrow and CFB games on tap. Anyway, on to the play.
Baylor vs. Texas St. u61.5 (-110): I know what you’re thinking; Texas State brought over Incarnate Word’s head coach and offensive coordinator to install their brand of fast-break football, meaning there should be points in bunches on Saturday in Waco. Not so fast, my friend! Texas St. just doesn’t have the horses to put up many points against a strong Baylor defense. And while the Bobcats’ defense will be pretty ordinary, the Bears’ offense should be nothing special. Baylor will control this one from stem to stern but will not light up the scoreboard, and Texas St. will struggle to put up 14 points. Our computer model projects 57 points to be scored in this one, and we are good on this as a play to 60.
After a down Tuesday, we’re back with a vengeance today. Be sure to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for additional plays we isolate before or after the newsletter hits your inbox, like today’s early Cubs-Brewers under. That’s a wrap, gang. We’ll be back tomorrow with another issue of GIVE ME WINS.