Thursday is redemption day!
Hump day was the drizzling sh_ _s! 💩 Today is all about redemption, and we think we isolated the plays that will redeem us. The thin slate in MLB gave us plenty of sides and totals but not much in the way of pitcher props. We also continue to get our NFL plays out ahead of line moves that could hurt us. Well, we made you cry yesterday, so let us make it up to you and give you a laugh or two today while we tell you how we’re going to beat the books today. 🤞
Here’s what’s on tap:
Four MLB sides & totals to get us back on the winning track ⚾
One lonely pitcher prop that will make it drizzle cash 🤣
A pair of NFL plays we love, including a total for TNF and a teaser for Sunday to move on now 🏈
MLB Sides & Totals: The Tigers are going to roar in Detroit
It’s not a full slate of games, but we found four spots we really like today as we try to rebound from a putrid Wednesday.
Tigers ML-110 vs. Reds: There’s a ton of sharp money being wagered on the Tigers this afternoon, and rightly so. Detroit will have the edge in the starting pitching matchup, with Reese Olson besting Reds opener Derek Law and bulk man Ben Lively. While Cincinnati tears up left-handed pitching, they are as meek as church mice versus righties. The Tigers don’t exactly rip the cover off the ball, but they are not at the distinct disadvantage with the bats that one might expect today. The Reds bullpen is also dealing with workload issues, so that’s another check in Detroit’s column. This seems like a great spot to back the Tigers, and like the sharps, we’re going to do just that.
Brewers ML+100 vs. Marlins & Game u8 (+100): With the Marlins' recent offensive struggles (3 runs in the first three games of the series) and the Brewers' inability to hit in day games, this one looks like a low-scoring affair. Miami starter Eury Pérez is a terrific young pitcher with a bright future who will give the Milwaukee lineup its fair share of trouble this afternoon. But don’t sleep on Adrian Houser. His change in approach as it relates to pitch selection has served him well, and the advanced metrics (yawn) 🥱 show the work of a very solid starter. Despite this being his first start since a return from the IL, we expect Houser to have little trouble dispatching the Miami bats. While the Brewers won’t be going all Gashouse Gorillas on Pérez, look for them to break through for a few runs against Pérez, allowing Milwaukee to hand this game to their lights-out pen with the lead. From there, Devin Williams and company should take care of the rest, allowing the Brew Crew to take the series finale in a game that slides under the total.
Giants vs. Rockies u10.5 (-115): The wind factor will be in full effect again at Coors Field. The forecast calls for a cool, dank night with winds blowing in at almost 20 mph. These weather conditions mitigate much of the Coors Field effect, and with the Rockies being one of the worst-hitting teams in baseball without the benefit of the Coors effect, Logan Webb should have little trouble stymying the Colorado bats. San Fran will put up no more than six runs in these blustery conditions, and I’m hard-pressed to see how the Rockies score more than three runs against Webb and an excellent Giants bullpen. Get on this under early before it gets steamed down to 10 or even less.
MLB Pitcher Props: Slim pickings today in the props market
Well, we thought yesterday’s bounty of positive EV plays was a blessing; instead, it was a curse. Hopefully, today’s single play gets us back on track.
Michael King o4.5 K’s (-130): We project King almost two strikeouts above this total. Slam dunk!
NFL Week 2: Expect a shootout on Thursday Night Football
We’ve found a play we’re extremely bullish on for TNF and bring you a Wong teaser to move on now before the lines move, and the Wong teaser is no longer in play.
Eagles vs. Vikings o48.5 (-115): Points will be scored in bunches in a matchup between two high-powered offenses. Yes, the Vikings only scored 17 points in their Week 1 loss to the Bucs, but they did amass 369 total yards. Their undoing was three turnovers and a plethora of mistakes. The Eagles were not at their best offensively in their Week 1 win over the Patriots but should ball out in ideal weather conditions against an ordinary Minnesota defense. The Philly pass defense was porous in Week 1, allowing a 300-yard passing day to Mac Jones, leading us to believe that Kirk Cousins and company should put up plenty of yards and help Cousins take a step towards overcoming his prime-time game woes. With fewer mistakes than last week, that should equal 24-plus points for Minnesota tonight. We also believe the Eagles offense will click on all cylinders and should end up on the right side of 30 in a game Philadelphia likely wins by 10 or more. While we like the Eagles to cover the spread, the play here is the over.
Teaser: 49ers -1.5 vs. Rams & Bills -2.5 vs. Raiders (-110): Remember this is a Wong teaser, so this is only a play if the spread on both of these teams stays between -7.5 and -8.5 to ensure a positive EV wager. Also, make sure your odds on this are no worse than -120, and a push makes this a no-bet. As for the analysis, plain and simple, we love both of these teams to roll, but we need to bring the spread down to a number we can live with and back through key numbers. We’ve done that here and feel confident that both clubs will win by more than a field goal.
That’s a wrap gang. Let’s hope we have the stuff to get back on track today. The Friday issue will be loaded with all our usual MLB goodies and plenty of Week 3 college football plays. Remember to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for the wealth of bonus plays and all the latest from the GIVE ME WINS team. We will be releasing bonus CFB plays on Friday night or Saturday morning, and additional NFL plays throughout the weekend, so give a follow so you don’t miss out!!! Until tomorrow, when we’re back to wrap up the week with the Friday issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter. 👍