LA provides the cure for today's Hump Day blues!
It’s hump day, and today’s newsletter has the cure for your hump day blues. From the chance to bet on the Dodgers at a deep discount, to a load of pitcher props, to a bet now college football play for Saturday. If that’s not enough to turn that frown upside down, 😊 then we don’t know what is. Well, take five, sit back, and find out how we’re taking down the books today. 😎
Here’s what’s on tap:
We’re on the Dodgers on the ML and, for once, don’t have to lay a ton of wood ⚾
Seven pitcher props that will make it rain cash 💰
A road dog to pounce on now for Week 3 in college football 🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides & Totals: Expect the Dodgers to knock off the Friars in Cháves Ravine
Today’s MLB slate presented a lot of value and a spot with strong, sharp money patterns, putting us in prime position to hit the pay window. 🏦
Dodgers ML-126 vs. Padres: The opportunity to play the Dodgers at home at this price is too juicy to pass up! Los Angeles is getting discounted because the Padres are trotting out an elite brand-name starter in Blake Snell. However, beyond that, they hold no edges in this matchup. LA has the better lineup and bullpen, and in his small sample at the major league level, Dodgers starter Ryan Pepiot has pitched very well and should duel Snell pitch for pitch tonight. With Pepiot holding his own with Snell, we believe LA's many advantages come to the forefront and allow the Dodgers to take this one.
Phillies ML+163 vs. Braves: This play is about the value we’re getting. Yes, the Braves are the better team, and yes, Spencer Strider is the better starter with a proven track record as a frontline pitcher. But in examining the game, beyond the Phillies' slow start to the season, which is way in the rearview mirror, there’s not as much separating these two clubs as the price we’re getting would indicate. Both clubs can mash, and both bullpens are performing very well right now. But here’s the interesting thing: over their last six respective starts, the advanced analytics (yawn) 🥱for Philly starter Cristopher Sánchez are actually better than Strider’s. With the margin between these two teams so slim, the idea of getting 63 cents on the home team makes Philadelphia a definite play for us.
Yankees ML+113 vs. Red Sox: With two teams not hitting much lately, we isolate the starting pitching matchup as the significant edge. Clarke Schmidt is just flat-out better than Tanner Houck and will show that today as he holds down the struggling Boston bats. Look for the starters to exit with the Yankees on top and for the solid New York pen to hold the lead, giving the Bronx Bombers three straight over the Red Sox.
Cubs vs. Rockies u12 (-115): While the wind blowing in a Coors Field doesn’t mean as much as it does in Wrigley, a double-digit wind speed with a total this high, even in Denver, can’t be ignored. We’re not the only ones on it. Charting the betting splits shows a lot of sharp money on this under. We’re following the other winners and rolling with the under in a matinee in Denver.
MLB Pitcher Props: The props market is just teeming with opportunities
It’s not every day the props gods bestow seven opportunities like this on us. A rare blessing indeed that should have us awash in cash! 💵
Drew Rom o3.5 K’s (+125): Our projections have Rom nearly a full strikeout over this total, presenting 36% positive EV. Done!
Luis Castillo u7.5 K’s (-102): Castillo is a terrific pitcher but far from a strikeout machine.
Clarke Schmidt u4.5 K’s (+100): We loved Schmidt before his start was rained out on Monday, and we love him against the same opponent today.
Blake Snell u7.5 K’s (-137): With Snell projected under six strikeouts, this play is a no-brainer!
Ryan Pepiot u4.5 K’s (+130): While Pepiot can have the occasional big strikeout game, he is far from a big strikeout guy and, despite pitching very well, has logged only three strikeouts in each of his last two starts.
Jameson Taillon u4.5 K’s (+115): We project Taillon half a strikeout under this total. With this play at plus money, the value is tremendous.
Joey Lucchesi o3.5 K’s (-110): Lucchesi is projected a full whiff above this total. ‘Nuff said.
CFB Week 3: Get on South Alabama while the getting is good
This is an excellent spot for the Jaguars Saturday under the lights in Stillwater, Oklahoma, and we don’t believe you will be able to grab USA on the right side of a key number for very long, so move on this play now before it’s too late.
South Alabama +7.5 (-115) vs. Oklahoma St.: South Alabama has not looked like the team we think they can be this season, but we believe the pieces are there for them to put it together this week and at the very least keep it to a one-score game against Oklahoma St. The Jaguars laid an egg in their opener against versus a Tulane team with Michael Pratt at quarterback and struggled early with Southeast Louisiana before taking care of business. South Alabama is uber-talented on defense, and the Cowboys don’t have a talent approaching Michael Pratt at QB. The proof of that is Okie St. head coach Mike Gundy played three quarterbacks in last week's win over Arizona St., and you know what they say: when you have three quarterbacks, you have none, and we believe that’s the case here. The Jaguars will keep this one close the entire way and, honestly, have a real shot at winning the game outright, so much so that a half-unit wager on the moneyline on USA wouldn’t be the worst play in the world. The moneyline is not an official play, but if you can get +240 or better, a half-unit wager might be worth a flyer.
That’s a wrap gang. Let’s keep the good times rolling. Tomorrow will be another packed issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter with MLB side, totals, and pitcher props, an NFL Thursday night football play and possibly more. Remember to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for the wealth of bonus plays and all the latest from the GIVE ME WINS team. Until tomorrow, when we’re back with another issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter. 👍