Fantastic Friday!
This closes another terrific week at GIVE ME WINS. We hope you enjoy this newsletter as much as we enjoy bringing it to you. 😁 Please follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for a ton of bonus plays throughout the weekend, and feel free to let us know what you like and what we could improve about the newsletter. Help us make this newsletter exactly what you want it to be. Anyway, on to the business at hand; now it’s time to tell you how we’re going to beat the books today. 🤞
Here’s what’s on tap:
A total in MLB we would bet the house on! (JUST KIDDING) But we do love, love, love it ❤️
A full complement of pitcher props that will make it rain cash 💵
Three CFB plays that will send you to the pay window 🏦
MLB Sides & Totals: The Astros and Royals will light up the scoreboard in Kansas City
There’s a full slate of action across MLB tonight, and we’ve got three spots we really like. We’re especially excited about the over in the Astros-Royals game. Follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for some bonus MLB plays this afternoon and evening. We are eyeing a few spots we could not finalize before putting the newsletter to bed.
Astros vs. Royals o10 (-105): The scoreboard in Kaufman Stadium will look like a pinball machine the way these two teams are going to score tonight. The Astros come to Kansas City with one of the top offenses in baseball since the All-Star break and face a starting pitcher in Zack Greinke that couldn’t get out the GIVE ME WINS staff in a whiffle ball game. Houston might actually be able to hit the over by themselves tonight, but that won’t be necessary. Astros starter Christian Javier brings a 6.85 ERA over his last five starts into this contest, so we should be able to count on the Royals league average lineup for four or five runs tonight. That should be more than enough for this one to sail over the total.
Rangers ML-120 vs. Guardians: Another one of our favorite fades takes the bump today for the Guardians in Lucas Giolito. Giolito has been brutal for three teams this season, and we see no reason for that to change today. While it’s been a bit of a rough go for the Rangers over the last few weeks between being bit by the injury bug and the implosion of the bullpen, they are on a nice little heater, having won six straight. During their winning streak, the bats have looked like the dominant Texas bats from the first half of the season, and even the pen has been in fine form. The Guardians don’t hit much and are not likely to pose much of a challenge for Jon Gray. Expect the Rangers to take a sizeable lead into the late innings, which their high-leverage relievers will hold to give the Rangers the series opener and their seventh straight victory.
Twins ML-165 vs. White Sox: We’re laying more juice than we would like in this spot, but it’s hard to pass on the Twins in what appears to be a mismatch tonight in Chicago. The White Sox don’t hit right-handed pitching at all, while the Twins continue to rake. Minnesota will have the pitching edge all the way through, with starter Bailey Ober a tick better than the struggling Jesse Scholtens and the Twins bullpen in better form. There’s not much more to say: one team is charging toward the playoffs, and one is riding out the string. We’re paying a steep price, but feel it’s justified here.
MLB Pitcher Props: Big opportunities in the props market today
After hitting our sole pitcher prop yesterday, we’re back with six props that we think have us in line for a big day.
Hunter Greene u7.5 K’s (-118): We have Greene projected over a full strikeout under this total. Need I say more?
Johan Oviedo u5.5 K’s (+112): Oviedo hasn’t fanned more than five batters in any of his last six appearances, making plus-money on this wager baffling, but we’re not complaining.
Justin Steele u5.5 K’s (+102): Our projections have Steel coming in better than half a strikeout under this total, giving us almost 24% positive EV.
Christian Javier o4.5 K’s (-110): Javier is not a huge strikeout guy, but this number is about a strikeout too low.
Bobby Miller u6.5 K’s (-135): Miller pitches much more to soft contact than to miss bats.
Sean Newcomb o3.5 K’s (+105): Newcomb fans over 11 batters per nine innings. If Newcomb gives us any length at all, he should fly over this total.
CFB Week 3: Points will be hard to come by in Colorado Springs
We have a play for tonight and two for tomorrow in college football, and we are by no means done. Be sure to keep your eyes on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for bonus CFB plays right up until noon ET on Saturday.
Air Force vs. Utah St. u47 (-110): Both of these teams come into this game with terrific defenses. Air Force is one of the best defenses in the nation, and Utah State held Iowa to just 24 points in a competitive loss to a Big Ten squad in Week 1. Throw in the new clock rules and Air Force running the option which should limit possessions, and we have the recipe for an under.
Northern Illinois +11 (-110) vs. Nebraska: This will be a low-scoring game that will be too close for comfort for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers defense has been terrific this season and is the only reason they can compete. Jeff Sims and the offense turn the ball over too much to win games or blow out opponents. We told you in our Week 1 preview of their game against Minnesota that this season was going to be a struggle for Ruhle and the Huskers, and we expect those struggles to continue Saturday in Lincoln against a feisty Northern Illinois club, so take the points with the expectation that the Huskies keep it close all the way through.
Kentucky vs. Akron o49 (-110): Akron got us in Week 1 when we expected big offensive performances from the Zips and Temple. The game was poised to go over the total, but neither team scored in the fourth quarter. We don’t see a repeat of that. Akron has a talented offense that has not played up to that talent thus far. Look for the offense to play well on Saturday, putting up better than 20 points against Kentucky. On the other hand, the Zips defense is not a strong group and will not hold up against an SEC foe. We see the Wildcats good for better than 35 points, making the over the way to go in this one.
That’s a wrap gang. What a terrific week at GIVE ME WINS. Remember to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for bonus plays all weekend long and all the latest from the GIVE ME WINS team. We will be releasing bonus CFB plays on Friday night or Saturday morning and additional NFL plays throughout the weekend. Have a great and hopefully prosperous weekend!💰 We’ll see you here on Monday with the latest issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter. 👍