Terrific Thursday!
We got humped on Hump Day by the Cubs again! 😡 We were cruising to a win on the under in the Cubs-Braves game until the latest implosion by the Cubs pen snatched money right out of our hands. 💸 Lesson learned: we’re off the Cubs for the rest of the regular season. You learn in this business that stuff like that is part of the game, so we pick ourselves up and move on. We found plenty of MLB spots without the Cubs, along with pitcher props and a play involving TNF. So, without any further adieu, let’s get started and tell you how we’re making the books quiver with fear today! 😨
Here’s what’s on tap:
A pair of live road dogs are among our four MLB sides and totals ⚾
Our pitcher props are all on the over today 😲
A teaser bet we love with the first leg on a side in TNF🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides & Totals: Tigers, Gibson-Long will slow down Royals today
We’ve isolated some spots we really like on today’s MLB card. There’s some excellent value, including some very live underdogs.
Tigers ML-110 vs. Royals: This is an intriguing matchup between two young starting pitchers in the Royals, Cole Ragans, and the Tigers, Sawyer Gibson-Long. Ragans has really taken off since being acquired by the Royals, and Gibson-Long has been nothing short of outstanding in his three big league starts. To a great degree, the two starters will cancel each other out, so we search in other places for our edges today. In this case, those advantages are the better recent work of the Detroit bullpen and the better recent form of the Tigers bats. Detroit has been hitting lefties very well of late, with an OPS of .796 versus southpaws since Sep.22, while Kansas City has struggled with righties, posting just a .671 OPS during that span. We are getting great value at this short price, and our projection that the Tigers have a 61% chance to win this game, so we’re rolling with the Tigers in Motown today.
Yankees ML+163 vs. Blue Jays: This play is all about fading the Blue Jays while getting a good price. The Jays lineup couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat. This young team seems to be feeling the pressure of needing wins to lock up a playoff berth. On the other hand, the Yankees have nothing to play for, but pride and the lack of pressure have allowed them to play free and easy. New York starter Luke Weaver is on his third team this season and is not particularly good, but he has pitched better since arriving in the Bronx and is pitching for a role with the Bronx Bombers next season. The Yankees lineup has been hitting right-handed pitching well lately, and we believe they can plate a few runs on Toronto starter Chris Bassitt. While on the surface, numbers for Bassitt have been terrific in his last five starts with a 3-1 record and 2.57 ERA while averaging seven innings per start, the advanced analytics (yawn) 🥱show that Bassitt could be a candidate for negative regression. Look for the relaxed Yanks to touch up Bassitt for a few runs while the struggling Blue Jays make Luke Weaver look like Cy Young as New York picks up the win and the series sweep.
Rangers ML+114 vs. Mariners: The wrong team is favored in this matchup, and that presents us with value we can’t pass up. We project the Rangers to have a 55% chance of winning this game, yet we’re getting 14 cents. The streaky Rangers are on a heater right now, and we believe that continues tonight. The Texas lineup has looked like the Gashouse Gorillas the last couple of weeks, sporting a league-leading .947 OPS since Sep. 18 against right-handed pitching. The Mariners .733 OPS during that same span against lefties pales in comparison, and the Seattle bats have been downright frigid the last week. The starting pitching matchup between Texas southpaw Jordan Montgomery and Mariners righty Logan Gilbert is a tossup, and with the Rangers pen finding its footing lately, we don’t have to pay a tax to avoid the back end of the game. Everything seems to lineup for a Texas victory, so gladly take the 14 cents and the Rangers tonight in Seattle.
Brewers vs. Cardinals o8 (-107): This total has already moved up from 7.5 and will probably be at 8.5 by first pitch. We employ multiple computer models at GIVE ME WINS, all of which have this game hitting the over. The Brewers have been hitting the ball well recently and will do the heavy lifting to get this game over the total, with the Cardinals chipping in a few runs. There’s a chance Milwaukee hits this over by themselves, so the team total over on the Brew Crew might be another way to go, but our official play is the full game over.
MLB Pitcher Props: There may be only two, but boy, are they good
The limited MLB schedule for today put a dent in our pitcher props, but the good news is that a couple of plays stood out as excellent values.
Zack Wheeler o5.5 K’s (-125): We have Wheeler at nearly 7.5 strikeouts, making this look like stealing, which we’re OK with. 😈
Marcus Stroman o2.5 K’s (-145): This is way bigger juice than we typically lay with these props, but this number is extremely low, especially with Stroman expected to throw between 75-90 pitches as the Cubs get Stroman stretched out for the postseason. With that pitch count, Stroman should log between four and six innings today, easily allowing him to top this total.
NFL Week 4: Expect the Packers to keep it close on TNF
Week 4 in the NFL is here, and it kicks off with Thursday Night Football. We have a play we like involving this matchup between the Packers and the Lions.
6-point, 2-leg Teaser (-120)-Packers +8 vs. Lions & Eagles -2 vs. Commanders: We’re back with another Wong teaser featuring the most teased team of the week in the Eagles and a team at +8 we think is in a great spot with some vital offensive weapons returning from injuries in the Packers. Our NFL computer model from https://www.rithmm.com/ has Green Bay winning outright with the expected returns of running back Aaron Jones and wideout Christian Watson. Even if Jones could not return tonight, the model still has the Pack covering at +2 by almost half a point, so teasing them to better than a touchdown makes us believe we are in an excellent position with this leg of the teaser. As for the Philadelphia leg, the Eagles will be the NFL’s most teased team this week because nobody actually believes that the Commanders will topple Philly, so getting the spread below a field goal inspires everyone with confidence, us included. Our https://www.rithmm.com/ model gives the Eagles a 55% chance of covering at -8 and jumps to over 80% at -2, which inspires plenty of confidence. This is a sound Wong teaser with two solid legs and positive EV.
That’s a wrap gang. All we’re going to say is F_ _ k the Cubs! They kept us from being plus units on the day yesterday. Another reminder to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for all the bonus plays and updates from the GIVE ME WINS team. We frequently post bonus plays on Twitter/X, so hitting that follow button on our profile will send you to the pay window 🏦; not following will leave you out in the cold. 🥶 The Friday newsletter will wrap the week with both NFL and college football plays for the weekend, along with all our terrific MLB fare. We’ll catch y’all tomorrow with the Friday issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter.