Football Friday is here!
Yesterday was the drizzling s_ __ ts! 💩 One of those days where nothing breaks right. It happens to every handicapper, so even at GIVE ME WINS, we are not immune to such issues. We stick to our process and know in the long run, we will be up units and have an excellent ROI. 💵 The key is to stick with us every day by reading the newsletter and following us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for all the bonus plays and the latest news and information from the GIVE ME WINS team. Let’s not waste any more time since today’s newsletter is long and will take you longer than five minutes to read. Here’s our plan for retribution for a brutal Thursday!
Here’s what’s on tap:
We’re riding road dogs again in MLB, hopefully with better results than yesterday 🤞
Five pitcher props that should show us the money 💰
We’re attacking a side and the total in Sunday’s Chargers-Raiders matchup 🏈
Three sides we love in CFB, including two for tonight ❤️
Here we go!
MLB Sides: Rays should prevail in battle of AL East foes
The final week of the MLB regular season continues to be its usual unpredictable self. Despite the challenges, we believe we’ve found three spots where motivation meets performance, which should put us in a good position to cash.
Rays ML+130 vs. Blue Jays: Both of these clubs are limping toward the postseason, with the Rays having locked up a spot in the playoffs but still with a slight chance to win the AL East crown and avoid the wild card round while the Blue Jays still have work to do to lock up a playoff spot with both Houston and Seattle breathing down their neck. As a result, both teams are motivated to play hard and run their starters out there in an effort to win tonight. Now, it’s our job to find the edges to pick a winner. All the advantages seem to lie with Tampa Bay. Their bats have been straight 🔥versus lefthanded pitching the last two weeks, while Toronto has really labored to hit righties during that same span. The Rays also have the edge in starting pitching, with righty Aaron Civale besting Jays southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu. The standard numbers don’t show that, with Ryu having a much better ERA over his last five starts than Civale. But the old advanced analytics (yawn) 🥱tell us that Civale has actually pitched much better in those five starts and is the victim of an incredibly high .365 batting average on balls in play. Better bats better starting pitching while getting 20 cents equals a play for us.
Reds ML-108 vs. Cardinals: The Reds are still alive in the NL wild-card chase, while the Cardinals are getting their golf clubs ready for next week.🏌️You wouldn’t think a lineup with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arranado could hit as poorly as St. Louis has but they just can’t score runs and you can’t win if you can’t score. The Reds haven’t had any such offensive issues lately, leading us to believe that Cincinnati jumps out to an early lead and never looks back in this one.
Rangers ML+105 vs. Mariners: We’re taking the Rangers again after their bullpen let us down last night because the same fundamentals that backed yesterday’s pick still hold true today. Texas has been knocking the cover off the ball the previous two weeks while the Mariners bats have been quiet. While there has to be some worry about Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi since he has not looked good since coming off the IL, Seattle starter Bryan Woo has been brutal versus the Rangers this season. Under normal circumstances, we would play this as an F5 moneyline play to stay clear of a Texas bullpen that has some workload concerns, but our fears regarding Eovaldi have us thinking the full-game moneyline is the best opportunity for the Rangers bats to take over this game.
MLB Pitcher Props: Plenty of opportunities for a rebound today
It’s a full schedule of games in MLB baseball, and we think we have good intel on which pitchers will log some innings and those who might get short outings. The abbreviated outings from Stroman and Wheeler caught us off guard, especially Stroman’s, since his manager said he would log 75+ pitches yesterday.
Colin Rea o3.5 K’s (-105): Rea gets the start today in place of Brandon Woodruff, who is being held back until the wild card round. Rea won’t go very deep but should log four or five innings, allowing him to slide over this total.
J.P. France o3.5 K’s (-128): The Astros need wins, so France will go as long as it helps Houston secure a win tonight. We project France at better than two strikeouts above this total, making this play a no-brainer.
Jake Woodford o3.5 K’s (+163): This is a value play because of the price. Woodford won’t go very deep, but we project him at 3.89 strikeouts today, giving us over 40% positive EV, and that’s always a play!
Nathan Eovaldi o4.5 K’s (-145): Texas still needs to win games, and they also need to get Eovaldi stretched out for the playoffs. He is still building his arm strength after a lengthy stint on the IL, so look for Eovaldi to throw between 75-90 pitches tonight, which should be enough to clear this total.
Dylan Cease u6.5 K’s (+105): We’re pretty sure Cease won’t go very deep tonight, so we project him to whiff a shade under six batters tonight.
NFL Week 4: Look for the Chargers to dismantle the punchless Raiders
What would Football Friday be without a couple of plays for your NFL Sunday courtesy of our https://www.rithmm.com/ NFL model? We will be rolling out more NFL plays right until noon ET on Sunday on our Twitter/X page @give_me_wins, so give us a follow so you don’t miss out.
Chargers -5 (-110) vs. Raiders & Game Total u49.5 (-115): Both teams suffer from poor coaching, but one has loads of talent, and one does not. The one with talent all over the field is a five-point favorite: the Chargers. Los Angeles has a stud quarterback in Justin Herbert. Even without Mike Williams this week, they are loaded with speed and talent at the skill positions, and Joey Bosa leads a defense full of playmakers. The Raiders have talented wide receivers, Max Crosby, a struggling Josh Jacobs, and not much else. The https://www.rithmm.com/ model has LA as a nine-point favorite, with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB. If Jimmy G. can’t go because of the concussion he suffered in Monday night’s loss to Pittsburgh, the model has the Lightning Bolts favored by 14 points. So let’s lock in the -5 because we love LA whether Garoppolo plays for Vegas or not, and if he’s out, the line will move significantly. As for the total, the Raiders are yet to reach 20 points this season, and I don’t see that changing this week. If Hoyer is under center, 10 points could be a struggle, so let’s get 49.5 while we can because we can only see this total dropping.
College Football Week 5: The Cardinals will soar in Raleigh
Another full slate of college football action continues tonight, and we are adding three more plays to our card for this weekend, including two for tonight. We will be adding CFB picks via Twitter/X @give_me_wins through tomorrow at noon ET, so make sure to give us a follow to avoid missing out on chances to head to the pay window. 🏦
Louisville -3 (-110) vs. North Carolina St.: Head coach Jeff Brohm’s offense has been downright dynamic for Lousiville this season with QB Jack Plummer at the controls. Don’t expect an ordinary North Carolina State defense to slow down the Cardinals' attack. While the Louisville defense has struggled against some mediocre offenses, the Wolfpack’s offense is not much of a threat. Outside of the big three in the ACC (Florida St., Clemson, North Carolina), the Cardinals are the class of the conference and should feast on the lesser lights on their way to a nine-win or better season. With all that said, lay the field goal confidently, as Louisville should win this one by two scores.
Cincinnati Pk (-110) vs. BYU: This line has been one of the week's biggest movers, with Cincinnati opening at +3 and moving to -1 at most shops with an outlier or two at pick ‘em. The steam move has resulted from loads of sharp money all over the Bearcats. A sharp bettor close to the GIVE ME WINS team tipped us off that he has a considerable position on Cinci, so we’re passing this play along to you. In sharp money we trust, roll with Cincinnati.
Rice -2.5 (-139) vs. East Carolina: We have it on good authority that quarterback JT Daniels will play Saturday for Rice, and that’s the difference in this game. With Daniels at QB for the Owls, they will put up points and yards in bunches. The offense is not the problem for Rice. The Owls’ issues are on defense, mainly a leaky secondary that East Carolina does not have the firepower to take advantage of. You know what they say: you can’t win if you can’t score, and we don’t see a way that the Pirates can score enough points to keep up with Rice’s potent passing attack.
That’s a wrap gang. We took it on the chin yesterday, but today’s newsletter is full of get-right spots. Remember to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for all the bonus plays and updates from the GIVE ME WINS team. We will be posting all weekend long, so hit that follow button on our profile so you’re not on the outside looking in. With MLB dark on Monday before the start of the postseason, we will have a smaller newsletter than normal, which also might be a little late, but normalcy returns on Tuesday. Enjoy a great and profitable weekend of sports action! We’ll catch y’all Monday with the latest issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter. 👍