Talkin’ Playoff Baseball!
We came up on the wrong side of things on MNF. 😠 There is no reason to blame the https://www.rithmm.com/ NFL model. There is no algorithm out there that could possibly quantify how bad the Giants’ O-line is. So, let’s dust ourselves off and attack the MLB postseason. We have sides, totals, and pitcher props for today’s action. We’re also releasing another NFL pick today. Ok, let’s get right to it and tell you how we’re making the books quiver today! 😰
Here’s what’s on tap:
A +160 underdog in MLB, we expect to open their playoff series with a victory 🧢
One lonely pitcher prop that will make it drizzle cash 🤣
We continue to build our card for Week 5 in the NFL 🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides & Totals: Diamondbacks will spring upset in Milwaukee
The MLB postseason is here, and now we undertake the challenge of finding value in the sharpest baseball lines of the season. We think we found three good landing spots today; two might surprise you.
Diamondback ML+160 vs. Brewers & Game Total u8 (-105): These are the two picks that may have you looking at us sideways, 🤔 but let us explain, and we’re sure it will all make sense. This is a matchup we give the Diamondbacks a 40% chance of winning, meaning the price should be much closer to +150 than the +160 that we’re getting, so we unearthed a little value in our eyes. Many won’t agree with that assessment, and that’s understandable when you consider how Arizona limped into the playoffs and couldn’t line up their pitching for this series. Our deeper study of the numbers concedes that the Brewers have the edges, but they are small, and we don’t think it justifies the price. While Milwaukee is the better-hitting team, neither club lights up right-handed pitching, and both teams trot righty starters to the bump. Speaking of the starting pitchers, that’s where, on paper, it looks like the Brew Crew has their biggest advantage with Corbin Burnes versus Brandon Pfaadt. Burnes is undoubtedly an ace, and while he pitched well this season, he didn’t pitch like an ace. Pfaadt pitched better than his numbers indicated, and his advanced metrics have him neck and neck with Burnes over the final month of the regular season. Again, should Milwaukee be favored? In a word, yes. They have about a six in ten chance to win today, but the value for us lies in Arizona, so we’re grabbing the 60 cents and taking the Snakes on the moneyline. As for the under, Neither team hits particularly well, both starting pitchers are pitching well, and both teams have deep, talented, and relatively rested bullpens. Factor in that now that it’s the postseason, starting pitchers will get the hook much quicker than they do in the regular season to prevent the big inning, and we believe we have all the ingredients for a close, low-scoring game that slides under the total.
Twins ML-115 vs. Blue Jays: Most people have this game as a tossup, and it’s priced that way, but we see it differently. We give the Twins a 55% chance to win this game, which should make them -125 on the moneyline, but they are priced at -110, providing value where value is hard to find. Minnesota seems to hold slight advantages in all the key areas. Anyone who watched these two teams down the stretch has to give the edge offensively to the Twins. The Blue Jays have the names on the lineup card, but the results favor Minnesota. Both teams have solid bullpens, but the Twins relievers come into the playoffs pitching better. And finally, the starting matchup; most give Toronto starter Kevin Gausman the advantage over the Twins' Pablo Lopez, but our deep dive into the advanced analytics (yawn) 🥱tells us that Lopez was actually the better pitcher since the calendar flipped to September. Offense, starting pitching, relief pitching, and home-field advantage all favor Minnesota, yet it’s only costing us 15 cents. It seems elementary: lay the juice and roll with the Twinkies.
MLB Pitcher Props: Something is better than nothing
The lack of games in the MLB postseason limits our pitcher props opportunities, but we won’t force it. We will only release plays that meet our criteria. It’s a methodology that has our props plays up over 20 units since we launched GIVE ME WINS. Feel free to verify our results with our independent tracking service at https://app.sportsdatanow.com/capper-profile?cid=GIVE%20ME%20WINS.
Zack Wheeler u6.5 K’s (-112): Our projections have Wheeler only whiffing 5.5 hitters today, giving us 25% positive EV on this play. ‘Nuff said.
NFL Week 5: The Pats should rebound in a rock fight in Foxboro
We didn’t necessarily have to hurry out this play since we’re not anticipating the line moving much. It should ping ping-pong between the Patriots -1 and -1.5 until kickoff. We don’t even believe quarterback news on either side will move this line much, so just sit tight and hang on to this pick and move when the time is right. If we see something that needs immediate attention, we will tweet it out @give_me_wins, so give it a follow to avoid missing out.
Patriots -1 (-110) vs. Saints: These are two pretty bad teams right now, and if history shows us anything, it’s that mediocre Patriots teams feast on other ordinary clubs. We expect that to be the case Sunday. It will be a low-scoring game, with both offenses seemingly stuck in quicksand all season. Don’t make too much out of New England’s loss to the Cowboys in Week 4. They were outclassed by an elite team on both sides of the ball, and the Saints are anything but an elite team. As bad as the Pats offense has been this season, the Saints offense has been worse, and while the New Orleans defense looked good early in the season, we’re seeing cracks as the season progresses. New England’s defense will shut down the Saints' hapless offense and somehow find a way to make enough plays on offense to scratch out a one-score win.
That’s a wrap gang. The MLB playoffs are here, and we will work hard for the next month to find winning edges daily. We say it daily, but it bears repeating; follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for all the bonus plays and updates from the GIVE ME WINS team. We frequently post bonus plays, especially on a football weekend, so hitting that follow button on our profile could line your pockets with cash; 💵 not following will leave you out in the cold. 🥶 The Hump Day newsletter will be loaded with MLB plays, and we will release a CFB play tomorrow too. Enjoy all the postseason baseball action, hopefully, with pockets full of money, thanks to GIVE ME WINS. We’ll catch y’all tomorrow with the Wednesday issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter. 👍