It's Hump Day and we're doing the polka!
Not a bad day all in all yesterday, but it could have been a big day if not for a couple of ninth-inning runs surrendered by the Brewers normally lock down bullpen. We’ll take a little profit and move on to today. 💰Today, we continue our assault on the MLB playoffs and turn our attention to Wednesday night Conference USA football action. Time to dive right in, take five minutes, and see how we’re making the books run for cover today! 😉
Here’s what’s on tap:
A pair of Game 1 losers in the MLB playoffs we like to rebound today ⚾
Quality over quantity in our pitcher props 👍
Conference USA football brings us a total we love for tonight 🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides: We’re expecting a pair of favorites to bounce back today
Day 1 of the MLB playoffs was damn entertaining and not half bad for us from a wagering perspective. Let’s hope for more of the same today with our two picks on the moneyline.
Rays ML-155 vs. Rangers: It’s all hands on deck for the Rays, but that’s not the biggest reason we believe they take Game 2 and knot the series. The major reasons are much more analytical. It boils down to the huge pitching edge they should enjoy today from the first pitch until the final out. It all begins with the starting pitching matchup. Rays starter Zach Eflin has pitched exceptionally well since the calendar flipped to September, going 3-0 in his five starts and not surrendering more than three earned runs in any of those starts. His opposite number is Nathan Eovaldi, who was an AL Cy Young candidate until he landed on the IL in late July. Since his return, he has been brutal. In his six starts since coming off the IL, Eovaldi is sporting a 9.30 ERA with the advanced analytics (yawn) 🥱 to back it up. That edge should allow Tampa Bay to jump out to a comfortable early lead. From there, the Rays vastly superior bullpen should take care of the rest, allowing Tampa to cruise to the victory, squaring the series at one game each.
Brewers ML-126 vs. Diamondbacks: We look for the Brewers to rebound and knot the series in Game 2 for much the same reasons we like the Rays to bounce back in their series: the pitching edges. While Milwaukee’s edge in the starting pitching matchup might not be readily apparent, it’s most definitely there, and thanks to this somewhat hidden advantage, we get to ride the Brew Crew at a discount. We give the Brewers a 60% chance to win this game, meaning in our eyes, they should be -150 on the moneyline, and we’re getting Milwaukee for -126; that’s some excellent value! As for this starting matchup, Brewers starter Freddy Peralta has been a stud the last month and pitches even better at home than he does on the road. Peralta’s opponent tonight, Zack Gallen, has been good down the stretch of the season but not on the level of Peralta and really struggles on the road. Once this game gets into the pen, the Brewers continue to have the advantage, and we expect Milwaukee to head into the late innings with the lead. Clean late innings from the Brewers relievers should allow them to close out Game 2 and stay alive in the series.
MLB Pitcher Props: The light schedule limits our options
The limited games in playoff baseball make pitcher props opportunities few and far between, but once again, we did find one spot we liked today.
Nathan Eovaldi o4.5 K’s (+125): Even with Eovaldi’s recent struggles, the strikeouts have come at a good clip. While we don’t expect a very good or long outing from Eovaldi today, we do project him at five strikeouts, and with us getting 25 cents on this play, it presents excellent value.
CFB Week 6: The Aggies and Panthers should sail over the total
Wednesday night Conference USA action, while not always the most thrilling football on the planet, can provide some opportunities to make money, and that’s why we’re here. Tonight is one of those nights.
New Mexico St. vs. Florida International University o48.5 (-110): Neither of these teams are playing very fast this season or putting up points in bunches, but this total seems a skosh too low. With New Mexico State, the slow pace is not a surprise. They played at the slowest pace in the country last season and are in line to do the same this year. FIU’s slow pace thus far this season is surprising, considering they were right near the national average last season. With the switch at quarterback and move into conference play, look for the Panthers' pace to pick up and fall in line with their 2022 numbers. Combine the quicker pace of play with solid offense performances from both clubs against suspect defenses, and these teams likely total better than 55 points, so 48.5 looks like an excellent spot tonight.
That’s a wrap gang. The MLB playoffs continue to roll along, and now we start getting a steady stream of midweek college football games that should continue to provide us with positive EV betting opportunities. Here’s yet another gentle reminder to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for all the bonus plays and updates from the GIVE ME WINS team. We frequently post bonus plays, especially on a football weekend, so hitting that follow button on our profile could make it rain cash: ☔ not following will leave you out in the cold. 🥶 The Thursday newsletter will have something for everyone, with MLB, CFB, and NFL all getting some love in the newsletter tomorrow. Peace out ✌️ We’ll catch y’all tomorrow with the Thursday issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter. 🤟