Let's keep the good times rolling!
We sure started the week on the right foot! A 5-2 Monday for +2.94 units with a play for Week 1 of the NFL season still in your hip pocket. We’ve got a little bit of everything on tap today, so sit back and relax as we try to make the books beg for mercy while we give you a chuckle or two. We promise it will be the best five minutes you ever had with your clothes on! 😉
Here’s what’s on tap today:
Can we hit for plus money on back-to-back nights with an MLB moneyline play? 🤑
MLB pitcher props to line your pockets 💵
A total we love for Week 1 in college football 🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides and Totals: Look for the scalding hot Mariners offense to smash us over the total
Yankees vs. Tigers F5 u4.5 (-138): This play is primarily about today’s starting pitchers. The Yankees' Michael King and the Tigers' Tarik Skubal have been terrific over the last month. Yes, the Bronx Bombers have been smashing lefties in August, but overall, they have been a light-hitting group that is playing some youngsters now that they are out of the playoff chase. Detroit is not exactly a murders row lineup either, so don’t expect them to break through against either King or bulk reliever Jhony Brito, who has excelled in that role. Let’s take the two struggling bullpens out of the equation and go with a first-half under.
Reds ML +145 vs. Giants: Neither of these teams is exactly knocking the cover off the ball the last few weeks, so we look for our edges in other places. That edge in this one is the starting pitcher. I’ll take Reds rookie southpaw Brandon Williamson over the Giants' Alex Cobb. Standard stats don’t illustrate that, but the advanced metrics we dive into to project future performance tell us that Williamson has been better than Cobb in the last few weeks. The San Fran bullpen is running on fumes from overwork, while the Cincy pen is fresh and has found its stride in the second half of the season. Throw in some juicy plus money, and the Reds are too good to pass up tonight!
Mariners vs. Athletics o7.5 (-115): Some of you may be wondering why on earth we would play an over in a game where George Kirby gets to feast on the bones of the weak-hitting A’s. The answer is simple. The Mariners offense is en fuego 🔥! We could bore you with a litany of stats to support that statement, but let’s boil it down to this: Seattle is scoring six runs per game in August, so if they do what they usually do against a below-replacement-level starter and below-average relief corps, all Oakland has to do is scratch out two runs and we cash. I think they can do that. Let’s hope so, lol.
MLB Prop Plays: We catch a soft line on Charlie Morton
It’s a full schedule tonight in MLB, and while we found a lot of value in our props today, we’re also laying a lot of wood.
Gavin Williams u6.5 K’s (+108): Our projections have Williams notching only 5.33 strikeouts tonight. That’s over a strikeout less than the total, presenting an incredible 48% positive EV and plus money to boot!
Charlie Morton u7.5 K’s (-141): More juice than we typically lay on these props, but we project Morton almost TWO full strikeouts less than this total, so it’s a play.
Brandon Williamson u5.5 K’s (-135): All I’ll say on this one is the projections don’t lie.
Cole Ragans u6.5 K’s (-125): Ragans can have some big strikeout games, like the 11 he put up in his last outing, but he is not a consistent strikeout man like Spencer Strider. Our model expects some negative regression, so we roll with the under.
College Football Week 1: Let’s lock in this total while we can
Week 1 in college football starts in just two days, which means a full slate of games following the pallet cleanser in Week 0, a week in which we went 2-1. We’re giving you this play early so you can get the best line, as we think this total will drop as we approach kickoff.
Penn St. vs. West Virginia u50.5 (-110): Look for a workmanlike effort from the Nittany Lions, not an offensive explosion in Happy Valley on Saturday. Penn State is loaded just about everywhere. However, they are still a work in progress at wide receiver. The same goes for West Virginia, so look for both teams to lean on the run game in this one. That, coupled with the rule changes in college football this season, should limit both club's offensive possessions. Penn State will eventually break through and get on the right side of 30 before this one is all said and done, but the Mountaineers will find it tough sledding against an elite Nittany Lions defense. The result, WVU puts up 17 or less on Saturday, allowing this one to slide under the total with room to spare, making this a play down to 48.5.
As promised, we got the week off to a rousing start on Monday and look to keep our mojo going today. Be sure to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for additional plays we isolate after the newsletter goes to press and for any other GIVE ME WINS news. That’s a wrap gang. We’ll be back tomorrow with another issue of GIVE ME WINS.