Just another Manic Monday!
The weekend is in the books, and between Friday’s newsletter and our picks on the GIVE ME WINS Twitter page, it was a huge weekend chock full of winners! Let’s dive right in and keep cashing. So sit back and take five minutes as we have a go at beating the books again while having a laugh or two!
Here’s what’s on tap today:
MLB sides and totals featuring a road dog we like to cash💵
More of our scalding hot MLB pitcher props 🔥
An early NFL Week 1 line to pounce on now:🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides and Totals: We’re riding Wade Miley’s hot hand tonight in Chi-Town
Brewers ML +112 vs. Cubs: These teams come in here on heaters, with the Cubs having won two in a row and seven of 10 while the Brew Crew has won eight straight. Both clubs have had scalding hot bats recently, with Milwaukee averaging over seven runs per game during their winning streak and Chicago having put up a 10 spot in each of their last two outings. But that’s not going to be the difference tonight. The Brewers will take this one with their pitching. Look for Milwaukee starter Wade Miley, who hasn’t surrendered more than three earned runs in his last five starts, to cool off the Cubbies' bats before turning it over to a lights-out bullpen with a lead. Expect that dominant pen to hold that lead, allowing the Brewers to take the series opener between the top two teams in the NL Central.
Phillies ML -135 vs. Angels: The Phillies come into this one raking the baseball, while the Angels couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn. Philly has outscored the Halos 150-84 this month and send the very capable Taijuan Walker to the bump, while the Angels counter with the hopeless Lucas Giolito and his 6.67 ERA in five starts since coming over from the White Sox in a late July trade. Need I say more? Probably not, but I will anyway, lay the juice and look for the Phils to cruise tonight.
Blue Jays vs. Nationals u8.5 (-108): Neither of these clubs has been an offensive juggernaut this season or recently. Both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in runs scored versus right-handed pitching since Aug.1, and both clubs send quality righties to the bump tonight. Additionally, when the starters exit, they will turn it over to two of the stronger bullpens of late, with Toronto’s pen being especially deadly. This one has under written all over, and that’s how we’re rolling.
MLB Prop Plays: Look for Gausman to miss a lot of Nationals bats
It’s almost a full MLB slate today, giving us a nice set of pitcher props to roll with.
Kevin Gausman o6.5 K’s (-110): We project Gausman at almost eight strikeouts tonight, giving us nearly 30% positive EV, so lay the wood without concern against the weak Washington bats.
Kyle Muller u5.5 K’s (-132): Muller is projected at over 1.5 strikeouts less than this total, giving us a ton of confidence in this spot.
Christian Javier u4.5 K’s (+122): Javier has failed to go over this total in his last four starts and faces a Boston lineup that has the lowest strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching in MLB since Aug.1. Makes plus money a sweet bargain here.
Bobby Miller u5.5 K’s (-110): Miller is not a big strikeout guy, and the Diamondbacks are not a big strikeout lineup, making us believe that Miller will stay under the total.
NFL Week 1: Let’s get on this one early before the line moves
With the start of the NFL season just 10 days away, we will start sprinkling in some Week 1 plays early to ensure we get the best possible lines for matchups where we feel we have isolated a definitive edge.
Falcons -3 (-124) vs. Panthers: It’s all 3.5s on the board, so you'll have to buy an alternate line. With the current price on three points at -105, don’t pay more than -128 to buy the half point. It may require some shopping, but it’s worth the trouble. As far as the game itself, the Panthers will be a pretty good football team by season's end and will likely be in the hunt for one of the final Wild Card spots in the NFC. I just don’t believe that Carolina will be a good team on Week 1. They are breaking in a rookie quarterback behind a suspect and banged-up offensive line and without a true No. 1 wide receiver. That’s a recipe for a long day for an offense. The defense is switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4, so this unit, brimming with potential, will be better later in the season than on opening day.
On the other hand, the Falcons surprised people last season with a ground-and-pound offense that was in the top half of the league in points per game in 2022. They will only improve with the addition of stud rookie running back Bijon Robinson and several other upgrades. Yes, Atlanta had one of the league’s worst defenses last season, but Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree lead a major talent infusion that leaves the Dirty Birds with as good a roster as they have had since their last Super Bowl run.
The Falcons could be one of the surprise teams in the NFL this season, and they should get off to a good start at home against a division foe.
Ok, gang, this should get the week off to a rousing start! Be sure to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for additional plays we isolate after the newsletter goes to press and for any other GIVE ME WINS news. On Saturday alone, we went 3-1 for +2.4 units, so it’s worth a follow. We’ll be back tomorrow with another issue of GIVE ME WINS.
