It's a Terrific Tuesday and we're already looking ahead to an NFL Sunday
While yesterday was not a record-setting day, a little profit is a little profit. The Yankees-Red Sox rainout did us no favors, giving us two no-plays. We’re back with a full array of action, including some early plays for Week 2 in the NFL. So sit back, relax, and take five minutes to find out how we’re going to make the books shake like a dog crapping a peach seed! 😈
Here’s what’s on tap:
A small road favorite we love against a league bottom feeder in MLB ⚾
Three more of our scalding hot pitcher props 🔥
A pair of early Week 2 NFL plays 🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides & Totals: Look for the Reds to bring the lumber to Detroit
We found quite a lot we liked tonight on the diamond and bring you four plays from an overstuffed slate of 17 games.
Reds ML-115 vs. Tigers: This matchup appears to be one-sided, with the Reds holding all the edges. Reds starter Brandon Williamson is vastly to the Tigers' Joey Wentz in this matchup of southpaws. And while Detroit has been hitting lefties well of late, Cincinnati has been knocking the cover off the ball versus lefthanded pitching this month. With both the hitting and starting pitching advantages, expect Cinci to hand things over to the pen with the lead late, a lead they should protect on their way to a road win in Detroit.
Mets F5 ML-110 & Mets-Diamondbacks u10 (-115): Neither of these teams has exactly been doing their impression on the ‘27 Yankees since the calendar flipped to September. Both rank in the bottom third of the league versus right-handed pitching in that span. With two righty starters toeing the slab tonight, look for a low-scoring game early, with Mets starter José Butto besting Arizona’s Ryne Nelson. Since we’re not thrilled with the New York pen, while the Diamondbacks pen has been solid over the last few weeks, we will take the relievers out of the equation on our wager on a side and take New York on the first half moneyline. While we believe the Snakes could touch up the Mets pen for some runs late in this one, we look for the Arizona pen to hold down New York, allowing this one to slide under what we deem an inflated total.
Astros vs. A’s o8.5 (-115): We all know the Astros can rake, and tonight should be no exception. The A’s send JP Sears to the bump, and to be kind, Sears has been ordinary his last six starts. His 6.30 ERA in that span tells the whole story—the Astros counter with Justin Verlander. While Verlander has gone 5-1 in his last six starts, that’s more of a testament to the offensive support that he’s received than his strong pitching. Yes, his 3.60 ERA is fine, but the advanced pitching metrics (yawn) 🥱 show that Verlander is a candidate for negative regression. We think that regression comes tonight. The A’s offense has come alive since Sep.1, and that revival should continue tonight with Oakland touching up Verlander for a few runs before he departs. I could see the Houston pen holding down the A’s late, but the A’s pen can be had, and few teams score runs down the stretch like the ‘Stros. Mix this all together, put them in a hitter's park like Minute Maid, and we have a game that sails over the total.
MLB Pitcher Props: There’s some soft lines to exploit today
We don’t have our largest selection of pitcher props today, but we found some extremely soft lines for us to take advantage of. It may only be three plays, but we really like our chances at a clean sweep.
Ryne Nelson u3.5 K’s (+130): Nelson doesn’t go very deep in games and doesn’t fan many batters. That puts us on the under, and the icing on the cake is plus money.
Patrick Sandoval u6.5 K’s (-125): We project Sandoval over a full strikeout under this total. ‘Nuff said!
Sean Manea o3.5 K’s (-117): Manea fans batters at a high rate, better than 10.5 per nine innings. The only question is length. If he goes five frames, we hit this over with ease.
NFL Week 2: A pair of totals to pounce on now
These totals plays tick all the boxes for us, and we want to release them now because we expect the lines on both of these games to move in the wrong direction for us.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars o51 (-110): We missed the mark on the Chiefs-Lions total on opening night and also missed the mark on Travis Kelce playing. Buried in the Sunday news cycle was a story from Jay Glazer stating that Kelce is on track to play Sunday, which will be just the elixir that the Chiefs offense needs. The Jaguars put up 31 points in Week 1 versus the Colts despite going just 3-for-12 on third down, leading us to believe that their offense can match or exceed that production on Sunday with improved efficiency. Our model projects a total of 54.8 points in this matchup, and we want to be on the right side of the line movement when it is announced that Kelce is a go for this one. We’re not alone in this thought as we are tracking a lot of sharp money on the over. Jump on this now to get line value.
Seahawks vs. Lions u49 (-110): With both Seahawks starting offensive tackles ailing and quite possibly not playing Sunday, the typically conservative Seattle offense will be even more run-heavy than usual. That hefty dose of Kenneth Walker III will slow the tempo of the game, leading to fewer offensive possessions and fewer points on both sides. While the Lions have an explosive offensive attack, they showed the ability and willingness in the season opener versus the Chiefs to commit to the run and play at a much more measured pace. The slower pace and what appears to be an improved Lions defense make this look like an easy under, but let’s strike now before the line drops.
That’s a wrap gang. The week didn’t start half bad. Let’s hope for more of the same or even better today. Tomorrow will be another full issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter with MLB, maybe some NFL, and our first college football plays of the week. Remember to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for the wealth of bonus plays and all the latest from the GIVE ME WINS team. Until tomorrow, when we’re back with another issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter. 👍