We've got a +155 dog in MLB we like to cash & a bad line to exploit in CFB
The weekend is here and GIVE ME WINS is ready to help you make it a prosperous one. So sit back and take five minutes as we try and beat the books while having some laughs!
Here’s what’s on tap today:
MLB sides and totals featuring an underdog we expect to cash
MLB pitcher props that will line your pockets
Welcome back college football
Here we go!
MLB Sides and Totals: Look for Framber’s struggles to continue in Detroit
Tigers ML +155 vs. Astros: This play is about value and fading Framber Valdez! Yes, the Astros are the defending champs, and the Tigers are, well, the Tigers, but Framber has been brutal since hurling a no-no on Aug. 1 versus Cleveland. Valdez has surrendered six runs in two of his last three starts, and it’s quite likely we'll see more of the same tonight in Detroit. The normally light-hitting Tigers have actually hit southpaws well the last few weeks, while Houston is hitting right around the league average versus right-handed pitching in that span. As a result, Matt Manning should hold his own against an Astros team that got smoked by the Red Sox yesterday and now has to take on a rested group of Detroit Tigers. Should the ‘Stros be favored? Sure, they should, but they shouldn’t be a -175 favorite. All the value is in the Tigers here, so we’re rolling with Detroit at plus money!
Tigers vs. Astros o9 (-105): Our analysis above on this matchup should shed some light on why we also like the over. Framber’s struggles will continue, and while we don’t think the Astros are going to look like the Gashouse Gorillas tonight, they should break through for a few runs on Matt Manning. Add in that neither bullpen has been great in August, and both pens could get touched up for some late runs. Put it all together, and you have a game that slides over the total.
Rays ML -128 vs. Yankees: This is an extremely one-sided matchup that should see the Rays at least a -150 favorite. They’re not because the sportsbooks always shade lines towards elite, brand-name starting pitching. Yankees starter Gerrit Cole is both of those things, but Tampa Bay starter Zach Eflin has been every bit his equal this season and maybe better. Beyond that, the Rays hold the edge in every other area. Tampa is knocking the cover off the ball lately, while the Bronx Bombers couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat. Even the vaunted New York bullpen has been showing cracks recently. Lay the wood without worry, as the Rays will roll tonight.
MLB Prop Plays: The Market is chock full of value today
MLB is back with a full card of 15 games today, presenting us with a ton of value in the pitcher prop market. Let’s dive in.
Dylan Cease u7.5 K’s (+114): We are projecting under seven strikeouts for Cease tonight and are getting plus money. This one’s a no-brainer!
Hunter Greene u6.5 K’s (+110): This is only Green’s second start since coming off the IL, and he’s not fully stretched out. He only went three innings in his last start, so don’t look for him to go deep tonight.
Tanner Bibee u5.5 K’s (-134): Our projections have Bibee at almost a full strikeout under this total. That’s why we’re ok laying the juice.
College Football Week 0: A small slate that presents some excellent opportunities
Week 0 in college football is the primer to get you ready for the wild season ahead. Despite only seven games on the calendar, we found a trio of games that have us excited.
UTEP +1 (-118) vs. Jacksonville St.: There’s some strange stuff going on with this line, so take advantage of it while you can. UTEP opened as a one-point favorite, a line we liked, but in the last hour, some shops have made Jacksonville St. the favorite. This opens up a great opportunity to get value on the better team. The Miners are far from great, but they are better than the Gamecocks, who are making the jump to FBS from FCS. Even on the road in front of what should be a pretty lively crowd, this one feels like stealing money.
San Diego St. -2.5 (-110) vs. Ohio: Ohio should have the best offense in the MAC this season and the best offense on the field in this game. The problem for the Bobcats is nothing will come easy against a very good SDSU defense. The Aztecs’ offense is no slouch, but unfortunately for Ohio, their defense has more holes than Swiss cheese. That will be the difference in the game. Our model has State favored by almost seven points. They are a play to -3.
Hawaii +17.5 (-108) vs.Vanderbilt: This play is all about our model, which has Hawaii as just a 13.5-point underdog. The Warriors are a play up to +17.
Ok, gang, have a great weekend, and cash those winners! We’ll be back Monday with another issue of GIVE ME WINS.
