Football, football and more football!
We took a step back Wednesday, but not a big one, and learned a lesson along the way. MLB pitcher props are done until the start of the 2024 regular season. The uncertainty of the postseason and the short leash on starting pitchers has made it very difficult to project strikeouts for these starting pitchers successfully. With no take on the one game on today’s MLB schedule, we are taking a pass on baseball, but the newsletter is still jam-packed. We’ve got action on both NFL TNF and the Big 12 matchup tonight and continue releasing plays to fill out your NFL and CFB cards for this weekend. We covered a lot of ground today, so let’s get right to it and take five or maybe six minutes and tell you how we’re beating the books today! 🤞
Here’s what’s on tap:
Player props for TNF that will make it rain cash 💵
We’ve found a definitive edge in tonight’s Big 12 gridiron matchup 🏈
How a team’s travel plans will send you to the pay window on Sunday 🏦
Here we go!
NFL Thursday Night Football Week 6: The value lies in the player props
While we didn’t find a spot we liked on either the side or total in the Thursday night matchup, there are a few props bets we’re bullish on for tonight, all involving the Chiefs' passing attack.
Patrick Mahomes o268.5 Passing Yards (+103): The brutal Broncos pass defense should make for a big day through the air for Mahomes and company. We project Mahomes to throw for over 296 yards tonight, giving this play a positive EV of better than 37%, which is an automatic play for us.
Isaiah Pacheco o11.5 Receiving Yards (-110): Pacheco has caught a pass in every game this season and has multiple receptions in three of those outings. One reception gives this prop a 60% chance of hitting, and two or more put it over 90%, so we’re happy to lay the small juice in this spot.
Justin Watson o21.5 Receiving Yards (-115): The market has been slow to adjust to Watson’s prominent role in the KC passing attack, which provides excellent value here. He has multiple receptions in four of five games on the year and is averaging 22 yards per reception. ‘Nuff said!
CFB Week 7: The Mountaineers will slay the Cougars
We’re adding a pair of plays to our college football card, including a play on tonight’s Big 12 tilt and a spot we really like in the MAC.
West Virginia -2.5 (-110) vs. Houston: This is another case of styles making fights, something that has been a theme of several of our recent college football picks. When you boil down this matchup, it’s all about how well West Virginia runs the ball and how poorly Houston defends the run. The Mountaineers are 49th nationally, churning out 163.8 yards per game on the ground, while the Cougars rank 90th in the country, surrendering 163.6 yards per contest despite a schedule that has featured two of the six worst rushing attacks in FCS (Sam Houston St. and Rice). The result should be the conservative WVU offense being able to go on long, time-consuming drives that result in touchdowns. The Cougars will want to counter with quick strikes in the passing game, which is their strength. Unfortunately for UH, West Virginia has an elite pass defense and pass rush. When you put this all together, we see the Mountaineers controlling this game with their running attack while holding down the Houston passing game, resulting in WVU grinding out a 10-14 point win in what should be a low-scoring contest. While not an official play, we believe this game will slide under the total of 50.
Ohio -6.5 (-110) vs. Northern Illinois: The Bobcats hold significant advantages in terms of rest and competition as they enter league play in the MAC. Notably, Ohio stands out as the only MAC team that hasn't faced a Power Five opponent on the road this season; in fact, they hosted and topped Iowa State on Sep.16. While several other MAC teams struggled against Big Ten and SEC opponents, Ohio played a more manageable schedule against comparable competition. The Bobcats haven't left Ohio since Sep. 9 and had a bye two weeks ago, allowing them to rest their roster and secure convincing wins in their last two games – a 38-7 victory at Bowling Green and a 42-17 home win over Kent State. On the flip side, Northern Illinois has yet to have a bye week this season, marking their seventh consecutive week of play. We would make Ohio a nine-point favorite on a neutral field, and with Northern Illinois failings at home, it’s hard to assign them a significant home-field advantage. Northern Illinois' impressive 55-14 win over Akron last week reflects Akron's defensive struggles more than Northern Illinois' offensive prowess. Additionally, Northern Illinois hasn't secured a home win against an FBS-level opponent since November 2021, with an 0-8 ATS record in such contests. With Ohio having an elite defense and an offense that is finding its footing after a slow start now that stud quarterback Kurtis Rourke is healthy, this looks like a lopsided game with the Bobcats cruising to a double-digit win and cover.
NFL Week 6: The Ravens will roll in London
We’re starting to fill out our NFL card for Week 6, and after putting out our first play for Week 6 on Wednesday, we’re adding two more today and will add more tomorrow and bonus plays on Twitter on Sunday to round out the card.
Ravens -3.5 (-110) vs. Titans: This spot is primarily about how the two teams have readied themselves for this game. After getting blown out 44-7 on their last trip overseas in 2017, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh promised that his team would be better prepared for their next trip to London, and boy, are they. Baltimore headed to London on Monday morning to acclimate their bodies to the time difference, while the Titans are not leaving until Friday, leaving little time to adjust their body clocks. Harbaugh has taken this preparation so seriously that the Ravens have set up fully staffed offices for the week in London, something we have yet to see from teams traveling overseas. The fact that Baltimore will finally have a healthy and full-strength offensive line, allowing them to go whole hog with the new-look passing game they have wanted to implement this season, is another check in the Ravens column. Unveiling this passing attack against Tennessee’s 23rd-ranked pass defense should also help Baltimore succeed and light up the scoreboard. Put all these ingredients in a pot and cook ‘em up, 🍲 and what you’ll get is a double-digit win for the Ravens.
Bengals -2.5 (-115) vs. Seahawks: This play comes to us courtesy of our https://www.rithmm.com/ NFL betting model, which is hitting on point spread picks at a 63.5% clip. The model projects the Bengals to win this game by six points with a 63.6% win probability. In looking at Cincinnati’s performance versus the Cardinals last week, one can understand why. The passing game finally looked like it was starting to perform how everyone expected, and the Seahawks' leaky pass defense should help the Bengals build on what they accomplished last week. For the first time all season, Cinci quarterback Joe Burrow looked healthy. Results aside, Burrow's ability to move around and navigate the pocket looked like vintage Burrow for the first time all season. That’s the difference in this game. With a healthy Burrow, the Bengals are a Super Bowl contender; without Burrow or with a severely limited Burrow, Cincinnati is what they were in their first three games, a very ordinary team. Look for Burrow and the Bengals to build on the success they enjoyed last week, winning at home by at least a touchdown.
That’s a wrap, gang! As we promised, today’s newsletter is loaded. We’re a little light on humor today but heavy on content, and we hope heavy on winning. 🙏With the weekend approaching, we want to remind you to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for all the bonus plays and the latest news and updates from the GIVE ME WINS team. The football bonus plays will be hot and heavy all weekend, so give us a follow and avoid being left out in the cold. 🥶 We again want to thank you for supporting this newsletter and encourage you to tell a friend. We love 🫶 publishing GIVE ME WINS and are so grateful for our loyal followers. Please help us grow this newsletter so we can give you even more terrific content and winning plays. We will close out the week with a wall-to-wall football issue of the newsletter to ensure you’re locked and loaded for the weekend. We’ll catch you tomorrow with the Friday issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter. 👍