Monday Funday!
What an amazing weekend of sports action we had, and we have another full dance card of excitement today with 16 games in MLB and a thrilling matchup on Monday Night Football to wrap up a terrific Week 1 of NFL action. Today’s newsletter is loaded with MLB plays, and while we don’t have a play on either the side or total in the MNF tilt, we found some winning betting opportunities to take advantage of. Before we move forward with the usual fun and frivolity, let’s take a moment to remember those who paid the ultimate price in the horrific attacks of 9/11. Now, take five minutes and see how we’re making the books sweat today.😰
Here’s what’s on tap:
Our favorite fade candidate is back, setting us up to ring the register
on the moneyline in MLB⚾
Four MLB pitcher props that will have you drowning in cash💵
A pair of props for MNF that we’re stoked about🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides: We’re fading Patrick Corbin yet again!
No totals caught our eye today in MLB, but we like these three sides and only have to lay juice on one of them. Good chance to score big!💰
Pirates ML-125 vs. Nationals: Our favorite fade candidate takes the hill for the Nationals tonight, and we’re fading him, baby! That’s right, Washington is handing the ball to Patrick Corbin, making the Pirates a play tonight. Pittsburgh has been hitting lefties very well since Sep.1, and Corbin is an exceptionally hittable southpaw. Expect the Pirates to jump on Corbin early, allowing Pittsburgh starter Andre Jackson to hand this one to the bullpen with a lead. The Buccos pen has been in great form lately and should be able to hold the advantage against a below-average Nats lineup. As long as Jackson gets the starting nod for the Pirates, lay the 25 cents and roll with Pittsburgh at home.
Yankees ML+118 vs. Red Sox: We like this spot for the Yankees tonight. The Bronx Bombers have been in better recent form than the Red Sox, send the better starting pitcher to the mound, and have the better bullpen. Yes, Boston has the better lineup, but the edge between the two batting orders has been negligible the last couple of weeks, leading us to believe that the other advantages the Yankees hold tonight should be enough to carry them to victory.
Diamondbacks ML +128 vs. Mets: We’re getting plus-money on the better team tonight because conventional wisdom and the standard stats say the Mets send the much better starter to the bump. Our deeper study of the extremely boring 🥱but very telling advanced analytics tells a different story. They don’t tell us that Diamondbacks starter Zach Davies has pitched great by any stretch of the imagination, but they do tell us that New York starter José Quintana is in line for some serious negative regression. In English, that means he’s due to put up a stinker, and tonight could be that night. Neither team has been ripping the cover off the ball recently, but the Snakes batters have been marginally better than the Mets, and the Arizona bullpen has been lightyears better than New York’s, meaning even if the D’backs don’t have the lead once the starters exit they will take it when the pens take over. Look for an Arizona team in fighting for a playoff spot to come east and take the series opener from the Mets.
MLB Pitcher Props: There’s some excellent value in the market today
Here’s a quartet of strikeout props that present tremendous opportunities to head to the pay window. All four of these props have a positive EV of greater than 25%, making these amazing plays that don’t come along every day.
Clarke Schmidt u4.5 K’s (+120): This is our best value of the day as we have Schmidt projected at 3.9 strikeouts, making this a 42% positive EV play!
Pedro Avila u3.5 K’s (+123): Avila probably won’t go very deep tonight and is likelier to go over this total in walks than strikeouts.
Alex Cobb o3.5 K’s (+120): Cobb can have some big strikeout performances, which makes us believe this total is about a strikeout too low.
Brandon Woodruff u7.5 (-105): Woodruff has pitched very well this season but pitches to soft contact, not a high whiff rate. We project Woodruff a full strikeout under this total, making this play a no-brainer.
Week 1 MNF player props: Expect the Jets to lean on the ground game tonight
We don’t have a play on either a side or total on tonight’s game, and we’ve had great success with our MLB pitcher props, so why not a couple of player props for your wagering pleasure.
Aaron Rodgers u234.5 Pass Yds. (-110): We don’t have a lean on the total in tonight’s game, but a lot of my sharp friends and all the betting splits we’re tracking are leaning heavily towards the under in this game, leading us to believe that Rodgers does not have a big night through the air, making the under the way to go.
Dalvin Cook o43.5 Rush Yds. (-123): With Breece Hall being worked back slowly from the knee injury that cut short his rookie season, look for Cook to get the majority of the carries tonight. Based on our premise that this game plays to the under, coupled with the concerns about the Jets tackles protecting Rodgers, expect Cook to log 15-18 carries, which is more than enough totes for him to clear this total. We’re good with this play to 47.5 yards at -110 or better.
That’s a wrap gang. Here’s to starting the week off on the right foot.🥂Tomorrow, we start putting out our plays for Week 3 in college football and Week 2 in the NFL, so it will be a stuffed to the gills issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter. Remember to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for the wealth of bonus plays and all the latest from the GIVE ME WINS team. We’ll see you tomorrow with another fun and informative newsletter.😎