Hump Day is here and today we're cheeseheads!
It’s hump day, so let’s see if we can brighten things up with some winners! We’re over the moon at some of the value we found in the market today and the chances to head to the pay window.🏦 Follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for additional plays and all the latest GIVE ME WINS news. Take five and have a chuckle while we tell you how we’re going to slay the books today!🤞
Here’s what’s on tap:
An NFL underdog that should be the favorite🏈
A winning angle gives us an MLB over that we love, love, love❤️
MLB pitcher props that will have it raining cash💰
Here we go!
MLB Sides and Totals: Expect offensive fireworks in Chi-Town
An exciting slate of games today in MLB has us going back to the well with the Twins and playing the weather edge at Wrigley.
Cubs vs. Giants o10.5 (-115): The wind is blowing out again at Wrigley, which equals both clubs blasting a lot of home runs and possibly one team hitting this total on their own. The wind will be blowing out at 15+mph by first pitch, and with the Cubs sending fly ball dominant starter Jordan Wicks to the bump today, look for the Giants to light up the scoreboard like a pinball machine. San Francisco starter Alex Wood is a bulk opener that won’t go very deep, but he serves up his fair share of fly balls, so look for the Cubbies to put up plenty of runs early. Lock in the best price you can as soon as you can because we see this total climbing to 11 or 11.5 by game time.
Twins ML-124 vs. Guardians: This series has been all Twins, and they look poised to sweep the three-game set in today’s finale. Minnesota has looked like the Gashouse Gorillas while dismantling the Guardians' typically solid pitching. Cleveland just doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with the scorching-hot Twins bats. Minny also has a slight edge in the starting pitching matchup with Joe Ryan over Gavin Williams. We cashed with the Twins on Monday and believe we will again this afternoon.
Red Sox vs. Rays u8 (-114): Neither of these clubs is hitting as well as they were in early August, and with both lineups facing strong starting pitching, runs will be at a premium today. Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta probably won’t go very deep as he has been a swingman lately, pitching sometimes in shorter relief stints and sometimes as a bulk reliever or starter, giving Boston four or five frames of quality work in those longer outings. Expect Rays starter Tyler Glasnow to continue his stellar work today, likely logging another quality start. From there, Tampa Bay turns things over to a very strong pen, ensuring that this one remains a low-scoring affair that slides under the total.
MLB Pitcher Props: Unders present tremendous value today
We found three unders in the pitcher strikeout prop market with great value and excellent chances at cashing.
Clarke Schmidt u5.5 K’s (+120): We’re getting tremendous value on this prop play to the tune of +43% positive EV. Need we say more?
Matt Manning u4.5 K’s (+100): We don’t have to lay any wood on an under play with a pitcher that fans less than six batters per nine innings. Hell yeah!
Freddy Peralta u7.5 K’s (-105): We have Peralta projected over a full strikeout under this total, making this a play all the way!
NFL Week 1: The wrong team is favored, and we’re taking advantage
This is another early NFL pick that we like to get you paid. Here, we take advantage of the misplaced love affair some are having with the Bears coming into the season.
Packers +1 (-110) vs. Bears: This appears to be a case where one team is overvalued and one is undervalued. The Bears are a trendy pick to win the wide-open NFC North, and the Packers, in the eyes of many, are going to crater in the year one AR (after Rodgers). We don’t see it that way. Yes, Chicago has found their quarterback and has a terrific running game, but even with the addition of wide receiver D.J. Moore, the Bears’ passing attack will be lackluster, thanks largely to a suspect offensive line that can’t protect Fields. As for the Bears' defense, it was one of the NFL’s worst in 2022, and despite some changes in the offseason, it should remain near the bottom of the league this season. Green Bay’s running game can go toe to toe with Chicago and will be a crucial element in the Packers' offensive success this season and in this matchup. New starting QB Jordan Love will have an excellent O-Line protecting him and a nice stable of receiving targets to get the ball to, putting him in position to have a solid season replacing Aaron Rodgers. We believe that will be the case based on the small sample we saw from Love in the preseason. As for the Green Bay defense, this unit took a step back last season, but we look for it to rebound in 2023 and be a solid unit. This group has always had success containing Fields, and that success should continue on Sunday. The Packers have too many advantages in this matchup to be the underdog, so we gleefully take the point in a game we’re confident Green Bay wins outright.
That’s a wrap gang. We feel great about today’s card! Again, make sure to check Twitter/X @give_me_wins for all the latest from the GIVE ME WINS team. We’ll catch you tomorrow with the NFL regular season kickoff issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter.😊