A Titanic Tuesday featuring a trio of early college football picks!
We hope you enjoyed your Labor Day and the holiday issue of the newsletter. We’re back at it today with a full complement of picks that will send you running to the pay window.🏦Be sure to follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for additional plays and all the latest GIVE ME WINS news Now, take five minutes for a laugh or two and find out how we’re going to conquer the books today!🔥
Here’s what’s on tap:
A trio of MLB sides, including a very live home dog ⚾
A pair of MLB pitcher props we like to cash🤑
Three CFB sides you better pounce on now 🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides: The Orioles will soar in LA
Despite a full slate today, we didn’t find as much that we liked as we did yesterday, and no totals stood out, so it’s all sides today.
Orioles ML-158 vs. Angels: No Shohei, big problem for the Angels. Ohtani has an oblique injury that will keep him out of the lineup today. The Halos aren’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball with Ohtani. Without him, they couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat. Reid Detmers and a rotten LA bullpen are unlikely to hold down the Orioles' bats. Lay the 50 cents without worry; Baltimore is going to cruise to a win tonight.
Dodgers ML-138 vs. Marlins: Yes, the Dodgers are coming off a tough series at home to the Braves, where they dropped three of four, and yes, they are traveling across the country for this series, but yesterday was an off day, and the Marlins ain’t the Braves! A study of the advanced analytics gives LA all the edges in this matchup. They have the better offense and the better bullpen. The starting pitching matchup does hold some intrigue as Marlins starter Jesús Luzardo has had back-to-back six-inning shutout performances but, before that, had struggled in his previous three starts. As a result, we give the rock-solid Clayton Kershaw a slight edge here. A word of caution: some of Kershaw’s advanced metrics make him a candidate for negative regression. We don’t believe the ordinary Miami bats will get to Kershaw tonight, but we might fade him in his next start against a more potent offense. All in all, we’re comfortable laying the juice here.
A’s ML+168 vs. Blue Jays: The A’s have been playing much better baseball over the last few weeks, are hanging tough on a nightly basis, and winning some games. No, they’re not the ‘27 Yankees, but this looks like a good spot at a tremendous value. Oakland very nearly pulled out yesterday’s game against the Jays, and we like them to do so tonight. It’s a good spot to take a stab at plus money.
MLB Pitcher Props: Not many soft lines to be found
Despite a full card today in MLB, there wasn’t much in the way of value in the pitcher props market. We did find a pair of plays we like to cash.
Brandon Woodruff u7.5 K’s (-111): Our projections have Woodruff over a strikeout under this total, giving us over 37% positive EV. We never say no to that!
Bryce Miller u5.5 K’s (-113): Miller is a quality starter but pitches to soft contact more than he whiffs a lot of batters. We project Miller at 4.7 strikeouts tonight, making this a great spot.
College Football Week 2: Early plays to pounce on now
These are three plays we love for the upcoming college football weekend, but you had better move now before these lines shift. We guarantee you won’t be able to get line these numbers as the week progresses.
Oregon -6.5 (-110) vs. Texas Tech: We love the Ducks in this spot and need to jump on this play before the line moves to -7 or worse, as we expect it will by kickoff. Oregon is much improved in the trenches on both sides of the ball and has a potent offense led by star quarterback Bo Nix. While big things are expected from Texas Tech in head coach Joey McGuire’s second season, their upset loss to Wyoming exposes some serious flaws that the Ducks will take advantage of Saturday in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are in good hands at QB with Tyler Shough at the controls, but a soft-as-wet Kleenex offensive line will have Shough under pressure all game long and also keep Tech from establishing any type of running game. The Red Raiders defense had more holes than Swiss Cheese in its Week 1 loss at Wyoming and looks ill-equipped to slow down a dynamic Oregon offense. It’s always tough to win by a big margin on the road in college football, but this looks like a spot where the Ducks come into Lubbock and steamroll the Red Raiders.
Illinois +3.5 (-115) vs. Kansas: Kansas comes into this game with one of the best offenses in the nation, returning 10 starters, including star dual-threat quarterback Jalon Daniels. With Daniels nursing a back injury that caused him to miss the Jayhawks' season opener, we don’t expect the Kansas offense to be in top form. That’s a massive problem for the Jayhawks, as their defense has more leaks than an old rowboat. A capable Illinois offense led by quarterback transfer Luke Altmyer from Ole Miss and running back Reggie Love III should be able to put up plenty of points on Friday night. Couple that with a stout defense that should contain the Kansas offense, and we like the Fighting Illini to pull off the upset. Having 3.5 points in our pocket that almost certainly won’t be there by game time is an added bonus that’s too sweet to pass up.
Mississippi -7 (-110) vs. Tulane: We’d love to be on the right side of seven here but still like the play. Just hop on now before this number climbs. Tulane was a great story last season and will be a good team this season, but Ole Miss is the more explosive offensive team, and all the value in this matchup from a wagering standpoint is with the Rebels. Every power index I use in evaluating line value gives Mississippi between a 72% and 78% chance to win this game, yet they are only a touchdown favorite. It may not be easy for the Rebels in the early going on the road but expect their high-octane offense to dominate late for a double-digit win.
That’s a wrap gang. Again, make sure to check Twitter/X @give_me_wins for all the latest from the GIVE ME WINS team. We’ll catch you tomorrow with another loaded issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter.