Happy Labor Day!
Let’s start the week off right with a full complement of MLB sides, totals, and pitcher props, along with a play for Week 1 in the NFL. Follow us on Twitter/X @give_me_wins for additional picks as you enjoy your Labor Day festivities.🍻 We know it’s a holiday, but take five minutes for a laugh and to find out how we’re going to beat the books today!💰
Here’s what’s on tap today:
An offensive explosion in Cleveland has us excited😀
A bunch of MLB pitcher props that will send you to the pay window💵
An NFL Week 1 teaser that we like to cash🏈
Here we go!
MLB Sides & Totals: Expect plenty of offensive fireworks in Cleveland
We’ve got an 11-game slate on tap for your Labor Day holiday, and there’s a play we like in four of them.
Twins vs. Guardians o8 (-104): We’re looking for a good amount of offense in this afternoon tilt in Cleveland. Lucas Giolito brings his 7.24 ERA for August into this matchup against a Twins lineup that ranks eighth in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching since Aug. 23. With Giolito serving up his usual array of beachballs to Minnesota hitters, expect the Twins to put up their fair share of runs early. The Guardians lineup has been surprisingly pesky lately, and they have hit Minny starter Pablo López well this season. Add in a vulnerable Twins bullpen, and that should allow Cleveland to plate enough runs to push this one over the total.
Astros ML-102 vs. Rangers: The Astros have been feasting on left-handed pitching all season, especially since Aug.1. Well, Texas sends a very ordinary southpaw in Andrew Heaney to the bump today. I know Heaney had an excellent start in his last outing, and his advanced metrics have been very good the last four weeks, but the eye test and Rangers manager Bruce Bochy’s quick hook in Heaney’s recent starts tells a different story. It tells me that Bochy doesn’t trust Heaney, meaning we shouldn’t either. When you factor in the recent struggles of the Rangers bullpen and the sudden inability of their big bats to hit in the clutch, it looks like it could be a long day for Texas. Plus, Houston sends the unheralded but effective J.P. France to the hill today. France has been money on the road this season, posting a 2.04 ERA away from Minute Maid Park. Look for the Rangers' recent struggles to continue in front of the home folks today.
Phillies ML+108 vs. Padres: Even money seems like a great price to get while fading Padres starter Rich Hill. Hill has been pretty lousy all season and awful since being traded to the Padres, posting an 8.50 ERA across five appearances (4 starts). The Phillies are mashing lately and always seem to put up runs when Taijuan Walker gets the starting nod. Look for more of the same against a fading San Diego club that is just playing out the string.
Cubs vs. Giants u9 (-115): Look for a pitcher's duel today at Wrigley! Both teams are sending elite starters to the mound today, meaning the bats should be quiet. The Cubs Justin Steele is an NL Cy Young award candidate, while Logan Webb has been way better than his 9-11 record would indicate. With neither offense tearing it up over the last two weeks and both pens pitching well, runs will be at a premium. The only fly in the ointment might be the wind, which will be blowing out but at less than 10 mph, so we still see the under as the play.
MLB Pitcher Props: The market is chock full of value today
The props market gods have been good to us today and have provided us with plenty of great value to take advantage of.
J.P. France o4.5 K’s (+118): France is not a big strikeout pitcher, but with us expecting him to log six or more innings today and Rangers hitters whiffing at a high rate lately, look for this one to slide over the total.
Cole Ragans u5.5 K’s (+124): Getting plus money on someone we project a half a strikeout under this total presents incredible value. ‘Nuff said.
Kenny Rosenberg o3.5 K’s (-112): Rosenberg is fully stretched out and fans better than 10 batters per nine innings in the minors. If he gives any length at all, he should sail past this total.
Rich Hill o3.5 K’s (-120): We don’t think Hill will pitch well today, but we project him to strike out nearly five hitters today, making the over a strong play with a positive EV of over 25%.
Corbin Burnes u6.5 K’s (-107): We project Burnes a full strikeout under this total, so pounce on the under at a reasonable price.
NFL Week 1: We’ve got a teaser for you that we love
You won’t see that headline come from us too often as we are not big on teasers except in very special cases. This is one of those spots, and we are playing something called a Wong teaser, which gives us positive EV.
Two-team 6-point teaser: Commanders from -7 (-110) to -1 vs. Cardinals & Steelers from +2.5 (-110) to +8.5 vs. 49ers. Teaser odds are -110 and push in either game makes this a no-play.
It is essential that you follow this teaser play to the letter as outlined, or it no longer has positive EV and should be a no play!!!
We like this play for three reasons. First, while we don’t believe that the Commanders are any great shakes and probably won’t contend for a playoff spot, they are lightyears better than the Cardinals, who might be the worst team in the NFL since the winless 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, leading us to believe that Washington should have little trouble beating Arizona by more than one point at home. Second, we expect the Steelers to give the 49ers all they can handle at home on Sunday, either winning outright or losing by one possession in a low-scoring contest. Third, we get that coveted positive EV, and the more of those bets you make, the more likely you are to be a winning sports bettor.
That’s a wrap for our Labor Day issue. Again, make sure to check Twitter/X @give_me_wins for additional plays all day long. Have a happy and healthy Labor Day. We’ll be back tomorrow with another jam-packed issue of the GIVE ME WINS newsletter.🔥